MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 June 30, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jun 16

 $ 44.74

$ 47.37
 

Jun 19

 $ 44.20

$ 46.91
 

Jun 20

 $ 43.23

$ 46.05
 

Jun 21

 $ 42.53

$ 44.82
 

Jun 22

 $ 42.74

$ 45.22
 

Jun 23

 $ 43.01

$ 45.54
 

Jun 26

 $ 43.38

$ 45.83
 

Jun 27

 $ 44.24

$ 46.66
 

Jun 28

 $ 44.74

$ 47.31
 Average Brent Crude for June: $ 47.54.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July    $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jun 28, 2017 $ 44.74 103.0 70.4 105.8
Jun 28, 2016 $ 47.85 101.5 71.2 104.0
YOY Diff. -3.11 +1.5 -0.8 +1.8
% Change -6.5% +1.5% -1.1% +1.7%

Commentary:


Crude pricing has been relatively stable over the past two weeks hovering in the mid $40.00 per barrel range for both Brent and WTI.  The production capping efforts of OPEC have been largely mitigated by increased crude production in domestic US, Nigeria and Libya.  Limited speculative activity primarily related to necessitated covering of short positions and reaction to US dollar change in valuation have accounted for some nominal price fluctuation over the period.

Refined product pricing as well has been relatively consistent as historically high levels of finished product inventories and year over year reduced demand have served to contain market pricing.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued June 28, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 118,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 894,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand fell 278,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 223,000 barrels.

US refinery utilization rates decreased by 1.5% to 92.5% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +118,000 +2.7%

Gasoline

 -894,000 +0.8%

Distillates

 -223,000 +1.2%
Source: DOE June 28, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate