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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 14, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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June 30 |
$95.42 |
July 1 |
$94.94 |
July 5 |
$96.89 |
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July 6 |
$96.65 |
July 7 |
$98.67 |
July 8 |
$96.20 |
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July 11 |
$95.15 |
July 12 |
$97.43 |
July 13 |
$98.05 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
$96.40 |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
$96.74 |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
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$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
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$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
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$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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July 12/11 |
$97.43 |
119.2 |
95.9 |
122.5 |
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July 12/10 |
$74.95 |
101.3 |
76.3 |
100.1 |
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YOY Diff. |
+22.48 |
+17.9 |
+19.6 |
+22.4 |
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% Change |
+30% |
+18% |
+26% |
+22% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory
assessment report, issued July 13, 2011, showed a bigger than expected
decline in inventories. Total petroleum product inventories dropped 3.12
million barrels with supplies of gasoline dropping by 840,000 barrels.
Crude and gasoline inventories have declined, not because of domestic
production inputs, but because of declines in imports to the U.S. The
DOE suggested that imports have declined due to higher prices in other
regions which are attracting the shipments of product to areas other
than the U.S.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
-3,124,000 |
+0.6% |
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Gasoline |
-840,000 |
-4.2% |
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Distillates |
+2,967,000 |
-10.83% |
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U.S. refineries utilization fell 1.4 percent to 84.9 percent of
capacity. This appears to be associated with seasonal
adjustments by refineries in production schedules.
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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• MasterCard, in its weekly Spending Pulse report, states that
gasoline demand fell last week 5.5 percent over the previous week.
Mastercard states that gasoline demand is down 2.1 percent year over
year. Demand over the holiday July 4th weekend fell 1.7 percent over the
same period last year.
• U.S. Federal Reserve
Chairman, Ben Bernanke stated, in a testimony before the U.S. Congress,
that the Fed is ready "to provide additional policy support" if recent
economic weakness in the U.S. economy persists. These comments had the
initial effect of increasing stock and commodity prices.
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3. Other:
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• The Chinese economy continues to show strong economic performance
with recent gross domestic product and industrial output indicators
showing growth of 9.5 percent over last year's level.
• The International Energy Agency stated that crude oil consumption in
2012 will average 91 million barrels a day which is a 1.6 percent
increase over 2011 levels.
• The economic turmoil associated with various countries' government
debt continues to cause havoc in the European financial markets. The
Italian government is the latest country which is showing signs of
difficulty. Italy is the seventh largest economy in the world.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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