|
|
MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 14, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
|
Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
|
WTI |
Brent |
|
|
June 30 |
$105.37 |
$112.36 |
|
|
July 1 |
$105.34 |
$112.29 |
|
|
July 2 |
$104.48 |
$111.24 |
|
|
July 3 |
$104.06 |
$111.00 |
|
|
July 7 |
$103.53 |
$110.24 |
|
|
July 8 |
$103.40 |
$108.94 |
|
|
July 9 |
$102.29 |
$108.28 |
|
|
July 10 |
$102.93 |
$108.67 |
|
|
July 11 |
$100.83 |
$106.66 |
Average
Brent Crude for July:
$109.67. |
|
West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
|
February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
|
March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
|
April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
|
May |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
|
June |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
|
July |
$103.36 |
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
|
August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
|
September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
|
October |
|
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
|
November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
|
December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
July 11/14 |
$100.83 |
138.6 |
106.8 |
142.7 |
|
July 11/13 |
$104.91 |
129.2 |
99.8 |
137.1 |
|
YOY Diff. |
-4.08 |
+9.4 |
+7.0 |
+5.6 |
|
% Change |
-3.9% |
+7.3% |
+7.0% |
+4.1% |
|
|
Commentary: |
|
Crude prices have
retreated approximately 2-3% since July 1 as concerns that
military uprisings in Iraq might interfere with oil
production have subsided and the prospects of a resumption
in oil exports from Libya have improved. Recent agreements
with local militias are now expected to open two ports and a
major oil field resumed production this past Tuesday. At
the same time the International Energy Agenda, this past
week, slightly lowered its 2014 forecast of global oil
demand due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the
middle of the year. Additionally U.S. DOE reported this
week both a build in overall gasoline inventories combined
with a decline in demand.
|
Economic Data: |
|
|
The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued July 9, 2014, reported a decrease in US crude stocks
of 2,400,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
increased by 600,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting
period by 233,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 200,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 0.2% to
91.6% of capacity.
|
|
|
|
Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
|
|
Crude |
-2,400,000 |
2.3% |
|
|
Gasoline |
+600,000 |
-3.0% |
|
|
Distillates |
+200,000 |
-1.6% |
|
|
Source: DOE July 9, 2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
|