MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 14, 2015

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jul 1

 $ 56.96

$ 62.01
 

Jul 2

 $ 56.93

$ 62.07
 

Jul 6

 $ 52.53

$ 56.54
 

Jul 7

 $ 52.33

$ 56.85
 

Jul 8

 $ 51.65

$ 57.05
 

Jul 9

 $ 52.78

$ 58.61
 

Jul 10

 $ 52.74

$ 58.73
 

Jul 13

 $ 52.20

$ 57.85
 Average Brent Crude for July: $ 58.71.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2015 2014 2013
January  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 59.32  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 59.69  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 53.52 $102.39  $104.68
August   $ 96.08  $106.49
September   $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jul 10/15 $ 52.74 119.0 81.2 115.0
Jul 10/14 $102.93 138.6 106.8 142.7
YOY Diff. -50.19 -19.6 -25.6 -27.7
% Change -48.8% -14.1% -24.0% -19.4%

Commentary:


Crude prices deflated over the past two weeks with Brent and WTI falling 6% and 8% respectively over the period.  Uncertainty over global issues including the ultimate resolution of the Greek debt crisis, the Iranian nuclear negotiations, a rising US dollar and continued strong inventory positions all contributed to falling crude trading values.  With regard to refined product, off-season demand and consistent inventory builds have influenced distillate pricing in reduced wholesale pricing.  Gasoline wholesale prices have been subject to more fluctuation as supply and demand dynamics come into play during this high volume summer seasonal sales pattern.  Inventories of same remain above average however, as refineries continue to take advantage of favourable cracking margins due to low crude prices.  The situation should prevent any potential for dramatic price escalation for the foreseeable future.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate