MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 14, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jul 3

$ 47.07

$ 49.68

 

Jul 5

$ 45.13

$ 47.79

 

Jul 6

$ 45.52

$ 48.11

 

Jul 7

$ 44.23

$ 46.71

 

Jul 10

$ 44.40

$ 46.88

 

Jul 11

$ 45.04

$ 47.52

 

Jul 12

$ 45.49

$ 47.74

 

Jul 13

$ 46.08

$ 48.42

     

 

 Average Brent Crude for July: $ 47.86.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 45.37  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jun 28, 2017 $ 44.74 103.0 70.4 105.8
Jun 28, 2016 $ 47.85 101.5 71.2 104.0
YOY Diff. -3.11 +1.5 -0.8 +1.8
% Change -6.5% +1.5% -1.1% +1.7%

Commentary:


Both Brent and WTI pricing have been relatively stable over the past two weeks with both having depreciated less than $1.00 per barrel since July 1. Variance observed within the period has related to fluctuation in the US dollar, US drill count activity and confidence in OPEC's ability to effectively curb global production of crude.

Refined product pricing and in particular gasoline has experienced upward pressure this past week as record US 4th of July highway traffic resulted in a draw down of refined product inventories.  Sporadic refinery production issues have also contributed to recent rack pricing escalation.  A flat gasoline futures curve has also encouraged draw down of existing inventory levels and discouraged speculative storage of product as well.  A reduced in distillate demand has resulted in a build of distillate inventories as of late.

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued July 12, 2017, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 7,564,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 1,647,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand increased 81,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories increased by 3,131,000 barrels.

US
refinery utilization rates decreased by 0.9% to 94.5% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

-7,564,000 +0.9%

Gasoline

-1,647,000 -1.8%

Distillates

+3,131,000 +0.4%
Source: DOE July 12, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate