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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 29, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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July 18 |
$95.93 |
July 19 |
$97.50 |
July 20 |
$98.14 |
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July 21 |
$99.13 |
July 22 |
$99.87 |
July 25 |
$99.20 |
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July 26 |
$99.59 |
July 27 |
$97.40 |
July 28 |
$97.44 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
$96.40 |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
$97.43 |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
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$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
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$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
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$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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July 27/11 |
$97.40 |
123.9 |
99.9 |
125.7 |
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July 27/10 |
$77.50 |
98.2 |
76.3 |
99.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
+19.90 |
+25.7 |
+23.6 |
+26.7 |
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% Change |
+26% |
+26% |
+31% |
+27% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum
inventory assessment report, issued July 27, 2011,
showed a build in U.S. commercial crude stocks
attributed to the first release of U.S. Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. Crude stocks increased by 2.296
million barrels during the last week. Petroleum analysts
had projected a decline of crude inventories. Gasoline
inventories increased 1.022 million barrels over last
week levels with implied gasoline demand showing
declines over the last week and four-week moving
average. Distillate stocks inventories increased by
3.385 million barrels over previous week levels.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+2,296,000 |
-1.9% |
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Gasoline |
+1,022,000 |
-3.9% |
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Distillates |
+3,385,000 |
-9.3% |
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U.S. refineries utilization fell 2.0 percent to 88.3 percent of
capacity.
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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•
MasterCard, in its weekly Spending Pulse report, states
that gasoline demand fell 1.1 percent over the previous
week. MasterCard states that gasoline demand is down 2.6
percent year over year. MasterCard notes that last year
at this time gasoline demand was rising.
•
U.S.
economic news has been focused on the
U.S. Government debt ceiling
discussions which have been occurring in Washington, D.C. At least one
bond rating agency, Standard and Poor's, have indicated it may reduce
the
U.S. Government AAA rating.
•
U.S. durable goods (items expected to last three years or more) orders
declined by 2.1 percent in June highlighted by weak orders for
U.S.
transportation equipment. In May 2011 durable goods orders showed an
increase of 1.9 percent over the previous month. The decline in durable
goods orders is referenced by economics that support the view the
U.S.
economy is going through a soft patch.
• Motor vehicle orders in the
U.S. declined 1.4 percent in June, machinery
orders fell 2.3 percent and non-military capital goods orders excluding
aircraft fell 0.4 percent. This later measure is a closely watched
business indicator as many economists suggested it more closely
represents true business economic activity. In May 2011 this index
showed an increase of 1.7 percent and many economists had predicted an
increase in June as well.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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