MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 29, 2016

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jul 18

 $ 46.96

$ 45.24
 

Jul 19

 $ 46.66

$ 44.65
 

Jul 20

 $ 47.17

$ 44.94
 

Jul 21

 $ 46.20

$ 44.75
 

Jul 22

 $ 45.69

$ 44.19
 

Jul 25

 $ 44.72

$ 43.13
 

Jul 26

 $ 44.87

$ 42.92
 

Jul 27

 $ 43.47

$ 41.92
 

Jul 28

 $ 41.14

$ 42.70
 Average Brent Crude for July: $ 45.05.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average Average
  2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July  $ 46.48 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August   $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September   $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jul 28/16 $ 41.14 96.9 69.2 99.9
Jul 28/15 $ 47.98 119.0 78.9 110.5
YOY Diff. - 6.80 -22.1 -9.7 -10.6
% Change -14.3% -18.6% -12.3% -9.6%

Commentary:


Crude pricing continued to slide over the past two weeks falling 8% or slightly in excess of $4 per barrel. Market prooccupation with surplus inventory postings of both crude and refined products was the primary market driver over this period. US commercial crude inventories now stand at 521 million barrels or approximately 62 million barrels more than year-ago levels.

Additonally, Altantic coast gasoline inventories are 20.9% above their level from one year ago and 18.6% above the 5-year average for this time of year.
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate