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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 30, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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July 17 |
$63.56 |
July 20 |
$63.98 |
July 21 |
$64.72 |
July 22 |
$65.40 |
July 23 |
$67.16 |
July 24 |
$68.05 |
July 27 |
$68.38 |
July 28 |
$67.23 |
July 29 |
$63.35 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
March |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
April |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
May |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
June |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
July |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
August |
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$116.81 |
$72.17 |
September |
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$104.27 |
$79.52 |
October |
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$76.72 |
$85.19 |
November |
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$57.44 |
$94.95 |
December |
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$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
Crude trading values assumed an almost
relentless march towards $70 a barrel over much of this past month
spurred on by investor optimism as better than expected corporate
results boosted equity market performance giving investors a sense that
the worst of the recession was indeed behind us. A subsequent market
correction initiated by a reported fall in consumer confidence, however,
deflated both equity and commodity markets late in the month. DOE
reported crude inventory builds exacerbated conditions with crude
falling in excess of $4.00 per barrel in just 48 hours. Refined product
pricing, as has crude, escalated over much of the past two weeks. Gasoline
spot market prices have risen dramatically over the past ten days as a
combination of reduced imports coupled with reduced domestic consumption
has pressured supply in light of what appears to be increased demand.
Interesting enough, subsequent month end unloading of "August higher than
September" priced future contracts triggered a sell off on July 29th
which tended to lower spot market prices dramatically. The
sustainability of this depressed pricing is difficult to predict at this
time as tight supply conditions continue to exist. Indeed, on Thursday,
the release of more positive economic news in the form of a favourable
corporate performance and improved jobless figures has resulted in a
more energized commodities market, resulting in both crude and refined
product increased spot market prices.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Jul 28/09 |
$67.23 |
94.1 |
69.6 |
90.3 |
Jul 28/08 |
$124.73 |
129.7 |
117.0 |
147.5 |
YOY Diff. |
-57.50 |
-35.6 |
-47.4 |
-57.2 |
% Change |
-46% |
-27% |
-41% |
-39% |
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1. DOE Report - July 29, 2009 |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
Crude |
+5,100,000 |
+17.8% |
Gasoline |
-2,300,000 |
0% |
Distillates |
+2,100,000 |
+24.5% |
Refinery
yield: 85% |
Distillate
demand down 10.7% YOY |
Gasoline
demand down slightly from last week but on a
four week moving average is up 0.8% over last
year. |
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2. Demand:
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China, the second-biggest energy consumer after the U.S., processed a
record volume of crude oil in June as faster economic growth boosted
fuel demand.
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3.
Economic:
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• U.S. government reported on Monday that new U.S. home sales jumped 11%
in June by the largest amount in almost 9 years. The Commerce Department
also reported that the construction of single-family dwellings jumped by
the most since 2004.
• Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. issued an improved 2009 profit
forecast on Tuesday. Coca Cola Co.'s second quarter profit rose 43%.
Chemical maker Dupont Co. and drug company Merck & Co. reported that
while their profits fell, the results weren't as bad as Wall Street had
expected.
• Positive data on the Eurozone and German economies also encouraged
equity markets as a purchasing manager's report showed activity in the
Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors rose to 46.8% in July from
44.6% in June. In Germany, Europe's biggest economy, the Ifo institute's
business climate's index for July rose to 87.3 points from 85.9 points
in June. It amounted to the highest reading since November 2008.
• On Tuesday, a U.S. Conference Board report indicating that its
consumer confidence index had dipped from 49.3 in June to 46.6 in July
triggered a deflation of equity and commodity markets alike. This report
was followed on Wednesday with a Commerce Dept. review indicating that
orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods dropped 2.5%
last month and more than expected.
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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