MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 30, 2009

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
July 17 $63.56 July 20 $63.98 July 21 $64.72
July 22 $65.40 July 23 $67.16 July 24 $68.05
July 27 $68.38 July 28 $67.23 July 29 $63.35
 
  Average Average Average
  2009 2008 2007
January $41.96 $93.06 $54.43
February $38.58 $95.34 $59.42
March  $47.96 $105.62 $60.86
April  $49.82 $110.72 $64.08
May  $55.96 $124.98 $63.54
June  $69.60 $134.02 $67.46
July  $63.93 $134.29 $73.80
August   $116.81 $72.17
September   $104.27 $79.52
October   $76.72 $85.19
November   $57.44 $94.95
December   $42.17 $91.24

Commentary:


Crude trading values assumed an almost relentless march towards $70 a barrel over much of this past month spurred on by investor optimism as better than expected corporate results boosted equity market performance giving investors a sense that the worst of the recession was indeed behind us. A subsequent market correction initiated by a reported fall in consumer confidence, however, deflated both equity and commodity markets late in the month. DOE reported crude inventory builds exacerbated conditions with crude falling in excess of $4.00 per barrel in just 48 hours. Refined product pricing, as has crude, escalated over much of the past two weeks. Gasoline spot market prices have risen dramatically over the past ten days as a combination of reduced imports coupled with reduced domestic consumption has pressured supply in light of what appears to be increased demand. Interesting enough, subsequent month end unloading of "August higher than September" priced future contracts triggered a sell off on July 29th which tended to lower spot market prices dramatically. The sustainability of this depressed pricing is difficult to predict at this time as tight supply conditions continue to exist. Indeed, on Thursday, the release of more positive economic news in the form of a favourable corporate performance and improved jobless figures has resulted in a more energized commodities market, resulting in both crude and refined product increased spot market prices.

 
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jul 28/09       $67.23 94.1 69.6 90.3
Jul 28/08 $124.73 129.7 117.0 147.5
YOY Diff. -57.50 -35.6 -47.4 -57.2
% Change -46% -27% -41% -39%

 


1.  DOE Report - July 29, 2009

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
Crude +5,100,000 +17.8%
Gasoline -2,300,000 0%
Distillates +2,100,000 +24.5%

Refinery yield: 85%
Distillate demand down 10.7% YOY
Gasoline demand down slightly from last week but on a four week moving average is up 0.8% over last year.

2. Demand:
 

China, the second-biggest energy consumer after the U.S., processed a record volume of crude oil in June as faster economic growth boosted fuel demand.


3.  Economic:
 

• U.S. government reported on Monday that new U.S. home sales jumped 11% in June by the largest amount in almost 9 years. The Commerce Department also reported that the construction of single-family dwellings jumped by the most since 2004.
• Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. issued an improved 2009 profit forecast on Tuesday. Coca Cola Co.'s second quarter profit rose 43%. Chemical maker Dupont Co. and drug company Merck & Co. reported that while their profits fell, the results weren't as bad as Wall Street had expected.
• Positive data on the Eurozone and German economies also encouraged equity markets as a purchasing manager's report showed activity in the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors rose to 46.8% in July from 44.6% in June. In Germany, Europe's biggest economy, the Ifo institute's business climate's index for July rose to 87.3 points from 85.9 points in June. It amounted to the highest reading since November 2008.
• On Tuesday, a U.S. Conference Board report indicating that its consumer confidence index had dipped from 49.3 in June to 46.6 in July triggered a deflation of equity and commodity markets alike. This report was followed on Wednesday with a Commerce Dept. review indicating that orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods dropped 2.5% last month and more than expected.

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil