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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 31, 2008
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Pump
Price Comparison:
As of July 29. |
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Gasoline |
Diesel |
Furnace Oil |
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Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax. |
Diff. |
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Charlottetown |
129.7 |
- |
98.5 |
- |
148.7 |
- |
117.5 |
- |
122.7 |
- |
116.9 |
- |
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Moncton |
129.4 |
-0.3 |
93.8 |
-4.7 |
150.2 |
+1.5 |
112.0 |
-5.5 |
136.6 |
+13.9 |
120.9 |
+4.0 |
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Halifax |
132.5 |
+2.8 |
91.8 |
-6.7 |
146.5 |
-2.2 |
110.3 |
-7.2 |
130.3 |
+7.6 |
124.1 |
+7.2 |
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Fredericton |
129.3 |
-0.4 |
93.7 |
-4.8 |
149.9 |
+1.2 |
111.8 |
-5.7 |
135.5 |
+12.8 |
119.9 |
+3.0 |
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St. John's |
139.5 |
+9.8 |
97.0 |
-1.5 |
156.6 |
+7.9 |
118.1 |
+0.6 |
131.5 |
+8.8 |
116.4 |
-0.5 |
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
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July 18 |
$128.88 |
July 21 |
$131.04 |
July 22 |
$127.95 |
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July 23 |
$124.44 |
July 24 |
$125.49 |
July 25 |
$123.26 |
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July 28 |
$124.73 |
July 29 |
$122.19 |
July 30 |
$126.77 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
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January |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
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$72.17 |
$73.10 |
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September |
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$79.52 |
$63.89 |
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October |
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$85.19 |
$59.20 |
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November |
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$94.95 |
$59.41 |
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December |
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$91.24 |
$62.09 |
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Commentary: |
The free fall of crude and
refined product trading values as of late and related to reduced
demand, a strengthened U.S. dollar, reduced Middle East tension
and a
thus far relatively dormant hurricane season has
seemingly bottomed out with crude now wallowing in the mid
$120.00 per barrel range. More recently, a larger than
anticipated decline in gasoline inventories as reported by the
DOE this week combined with a return to a hard line stance on
the part of Iran and renewed militant activities in Nigeria have
generated an upswing in prices as of Wednesday.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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July 29/08 |
$122.19 |
129.7 |
117.0 |
147.5 |
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July 29/07 |
$76.83 |
105.4 |
74.3 |
104.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
45.36 |
24.3 |
42.7 |
43.5 |
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% Change |
+59% |
+23% |
+57% |
+42% |
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1. DOE Report - July 30, 2008: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
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Crude |
-100,000 |
-14.0% |
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Gasoline |
-3,500,000 |
+4.3% |
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Distillates |
+2,400,000 |
+3.0 |
Refinery Yield: N/A |
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Demand: N/A |
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• The U.S. Dept of Transportation reported on Monday that U.S. motorists
drove 9.6 billion fewer vehicle miles in May representing a reduction of
3.7% compared to the same month last year and amounting to the biggest
drop ever for this historically busy summer driving month.
• This week's DOE report indicated that U.S. distillate exports were at
an all time high @ 472,000 bpd. Exports to South America and Europe rose
sharply during the month as winter heating demand in the southern
hemisphere and persistent tight supply in Europe drew cargos from the
U.S. Domestic U.S. demand continues to erode with distillate
demand down 3.24% year over year and year to date demand was down 3.8%
as a result of high prices experienced this year.
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• Middle East tension returned with Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
on Tuesday vowing that his country will push forward with its nuclear
research despite opposition from Western countries.
• Nigerian militants sabotaged two pipelines on Tuesday which
resulted in Royal Dutch Shell announcing that it may not be able to
fulfill some of its oil exporting contracts. The pipelines affected
carry approximately 130,000 bpd. Nigeria's daily production is now less
than one million barrels per day, down from as much as 2.6 million bpd
prior to the escalation of militant attacks in February of 2006.
• Economic growth in China, the world's second largest oil user, was the
slowest since 2005 in the second quarter according to the statistics
bureau in Beijing. Gross domestic product in that country was 10.1% in
the second quarter, down from 10.6% in the first.
• The U.S. Department of Energy this past week reported a drop in
consumption of motor fuel at 9.3 million barrels a day over the past
four weeks, down 2.1% from the same period last year.
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Legend: |
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DOE |
Department of Energy |
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RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
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F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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