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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
July 31, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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July 18 |
$103.13 |
$107.24 |
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July 21 |
$104.59 |
$107.68 |
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July 22 |
$104.42 |
$107.33 |
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July 23 |
$103.12 |
$108.03 |
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July 24 |
$102.07 |
$107.07 |
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July 25 |
$102.09 |
$108.39 |
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July 28 |
$101.67 |
$107.57 |
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July 29 |
$100.97 |
$107.72 |
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July 30 |
$100.27 |
$106.51 |
Average
Brent Crude for July:
$108.16. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
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February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
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March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
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May |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
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June |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
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July |
$102.59 |
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
|
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
|
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
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$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
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$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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July 29/14 |
$100.97 |
134.9 |
102.3 |
138.2 |
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July 29/13 |
$104.55 |
136.3 |
102.0 |
138.6 |
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YOY Diff. |
-3.58 |
-1.4 |
+0.3 |
-0.4 |
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% Change |
-3.4% |
-1.0% |
+0.3% |
-0.3% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude pricing has been relatively stable over the past two
weeks as the market seems to have absorbed much of the
impact of geopolitical issues in Russia, Ukraine and the
Middle East. Meanwhile less than aggressive demand for
gasoline in North America has served to reestablish
satisfactory inventory levels, therefore curbing any
measurable escalation in WTI crude prices. Recently
announced incremental sanctions against Russia have not as
of yet impacted the market but, given that they are aimed at
Russian oil production projects, the potential for a reduced
Russian supply to European and other markets could impact
prices within the next several months. Hence, for the
foreseeable future, the balance between a growing concern
for a reduced North American and overall global demand and
concern over supply issues in Russia and the Middle East
will determine the trend of both crude and refined product
pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued July 30, 2014, reported a decrease in US crude stocks
of 3,700,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
increased by 365,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting
period by 214,000 b/d.
US
distillate inventories increased by 789,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization decreased by 0.3% to
93.5% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
-3,700,000 |
0.8% |
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Gasoline |
+365,000 |
-2.3% |
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Distillates |
+789,000 |
+0.6% |
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Source: DOE July 30, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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