MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 July 31, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Jul 19

 $ 47.12

$ 49.70
 

Jul 20

 $ 46.79

$ 49.30
 

Jul 21

 $ 45.77

$ 48.06
 

Jul 24

 $ 46.34

$ 48.60
 

Jul 25

 $ 47.89

$ 50.20
 

Jul 26

 $ 48.75

$ 50.97
 

Jul 27

 $ 49.04

$ 51.49
 

Jul 28

 $ 49.71

$ 52.52
     

 
 Average Brent Crude for July: $ 48.94.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.49  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August    $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Jul 27, 2017 $ 49.04 103.5 69.4 104.7
Jul 12, 2016 $ 41.92 96.9 69.2 101.0
YOY Diff. +7.12 +6.6 +0.2 +3.7
% Change +17.0% +6.8% +0.3% +3.7%

Commentary:


Both Brent and WTI pricing have escalated approximately 5% over the past two weeks.  Continued OPEC resolve to reduce global crude inventory surpluses has provided upward pressure on pricing.  In particular, the recent OPEC decision to remove Nigeria's production quota exemption status, Saudi Arabia's commitment to reduce overall export levels and industry sentiment that US shale oil development has plateaued have all combined to underpin current crude pricing.

With regard to refined product, continued strong domestic US demand for gasoline and diesel has influenced wholesale pricing as of late.

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued July 26, 2017, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 7,208,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 1,015,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. 
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 1,852,000 barrels.

US refinery utilization rates increased by 0.3% to 94.3% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 -7,208,000 -1.4%

Gasoline

 -1,015,000 -4.7%

Distillates

 -1,852,000 -1.6%
Source: DOE July 26, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate