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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
August 13, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Aug. 2 |
$81.34 |
Aug. 3 |
$82.55 |
Aug. 4 |
$82.47 |
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Aug. 5 |
$82.01 |
Aug. 6 |
$80.70 |
Aug. 9 |
$81.48 |
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Aug. 10 |
$80.25 |
Aug. 11 |
$78.02 |
Aug. 12 |
$75.74 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
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January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
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February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
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March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
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April |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
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May |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
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June |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
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July |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
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August |
$80.50 |
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
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September |
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$69.08 |
$104.27 |
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October |
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$75.56 |
$76.72 |
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November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
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December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices escalated
early in the period as a combination of potential hurricane activity in
the Gulf of Mexico, a falling U.S. dollar and reports of positive
economic news from Europe all served to shore up the trading value of
crude. In recent days, however, less than optimistic news on the state
of the U.S. economy, reduced demand and growing petroleum inventories
have resulted in deflated pricing with crude prices having retreated
over 8% over the past week.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Aug 10/10 |
$80.25 |
101.5 |
76.3 |
100.1 |
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Aug 10/09 |
$70.60 |
99.3 |
71.6 |
94.7 |
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YOY Diff. |
+9.65 |
+2.2 |
+4.7 |
+5.4 |
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% Change |
+13.0% |
+2.0% |
+6.0% |
+5.0% |
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1. DOE Report: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
-3,000,000 |
+1.0% |
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Gasoline |
+400,000 |
+5.0% |
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Distillates |
+3,500,000 |
+6.7% |
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2. Demand:
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According
to Platts demand for U.S. gasoline dropped to 9.236 million b/d for the
reporting week ending August 6th to its lowest level in a
month.
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3. Economic:
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- The U.S.
Labor department reported on Thursday that last week's applications
for jobless benefits reached the highest level in almost 6 months.
- In
addition, stock market values fell on the reported disappointing
earnings from a number of U.S. corporations.
- Last week, the report of
favourable export statistics from Germany coupled with a weakened
U.S. dollar lent support to a rise in crude prices.
- Subsequently a negative trade balance report from China, and the
expectation of colder weather in the United States which will lessen
demand for energy demanding air conditioning, dampened crude prices.
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4. Other:
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Crude producers
operating off Canada's east coast are keeping an eye on a giant iceberg
which broke off of a glacier in Greenland last week.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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