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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
August 29, 2008
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Pump
Price Comparison:
As of August 26, 2008. |
|
Gasoline |
Diesel |
Furnace Oil |
|
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax |
Diff. |
Pump
Price |
Diff. |
Ex. Tax. |
Diff. |
Charlottetown |
128.6 |
- |
96.7 |
- |
138.1 |
- |
107.3 |
- |
114.1 |
- |
108.7 |
- |
Moncton |
127.3 |
-1.3 |
92.0 |
-4.7 |
139.3 |
+1.2 |
102.3 |
-5.0 |
123.2 |
+9.1 |
109.1 |
+0.4 |
Halifax |
131.0 |
+2.4 |
90.4 |
-6.3 |
135.0 |
-3.1 |
100.1 |
-7.2 |
119.6 |
+5.5 |
113.9 |
+5.2 |
Fredericton |
127.3 |
-1.3 |
91.9 |
-4.8 |
137.2 |
-0.9 |
100.5 |
-6.8 |
122.1 |
+8.0 |
108.0 |
-0.7 |
St. John's |
137.6 |
+9.0 |
95.3 |
-1.4 |
150.3 |
+12.2 |
112.5 |
+5.2 |
122.0 |
+7.9 |
108.0 |
-0.7 |
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
|
|
Aug 18 |
$112.87 |
Aug
19 |
$114.53 |
Aug
20 |
$114.98 |
Aug
21 |
$121.18 |
Aug
22 |
$114.59 |
Aug
25 |
$115.11 |
Aug
26 |
$116.27 |
Aug
27 |
$118.15 |
Aug
28 |
$115.59 |
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|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
January |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
|
February |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
|
March |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
|
April |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
|
May |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
|
June |
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
|
July |
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
|
August |
$116.81 |
$72.17 |
$73.10 |
September |
|
$79.52 |
$63.89 |
October |
|
$85.19 |
$59.20 |
November |
|
$94.95 |
$59.41 |
December |
|
$91.24 |
$62.09 |
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Commentary: |
Crude futures remained
relatively calm over the past two weeks. A one day dramatic rise
of $5.00 per barrel on the 21st, and due primarily to a 90 basis
point drop in the U.S. dollar on that day, was quickly reversed
the next day as the dollar regained strength. Of late, of
course, the market has been influenced by the threat of
Hurricane Gustav which has the potential to wreak damage to
offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and has caused many
to think back to the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in
2005. While the market is wary of the storm's potential impact,
at this point to the extent of $2 to $3 per barrel, industry
experts point to the fact that Gustav does not, at least
currently, possess the power exhibited by Katrina. In addition,
some meteorologists including Joe Bartosik of WeatherBug are of
the opinion the wind shear associated with the storm could shift
Gustav's path closer toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and away
from valuable oil installations. Of as much importance to the
market are the underlying fundamentals which currently indicate
a build in gasoline and distillate inventories in light of
continued demand destruction in the North American market.
Exports of diesel to Europe have significantly dropped off and
refinery production has picked up this past week in anticipation
of weather related interruptions. In addition, industry
conversion away from the production of more expensive summer
grade gasoline to more cheaply made winter grades has generated
a sell off of remaining summer fuels which should result in a
drop in NYMEX trading values for gasoline.
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|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
August 27/08 |
$118.15 |
128.6 |
108.8 |
138.1 |
August 27/07 |
$71.97 |
100.3 |
72.8 |
102.4 |
YOY Diff. |
46.18 |
28.3 |
36.0 |
35.7 |
% Change |
+64% |
+28% |
+49% |
+35% |
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1. DOE Report - August 27, 2008: |
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over
Year |
Crude |
-100,000 |
-8.3% |
Gasoline |
-1,200,000 |
+1.5% |
Distillates |
0 |
+1.7% |
Refinery Yield: N/A |
Gasoline Demand:
-1.6% YOY. |
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2. Demand Destruction Continues: |
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The U.S. DOE reported this
week that demand for gasoline was down 1.6% over the same four
week period last year. Additionally MasterCard this week
reported that US gasoline demand as measured by retail sales
data fell 4.5% just last week alone and this despite a 7 cent
per gallon drop in prevailing market prices.
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Petro-Canada advised on Thursday
that operations at its 135,000 barrel per day Edmonton refinery
should be back to normal next week. The plant's catalytic
cracker had been damaged and the forced shut down of the
refinery last week resulted in gasoline shortages in Western
Canada. Indeed, the situation resulted in refined product from
Europe and Irving's Saint John refinery being diverted from New
York Harbour to Gulf Coast ports for shipment via pipeline to
the West, temporarily pressuring NYMEX gasoline prices last
week.
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Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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