MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
August 29, 2008

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 


Pump Price Comparison:
As of August 26, 2008.
  Gasoline Diesel Furnace Oil
  Pump
Price
Diff. Ex. Tax Diff. Pump
Price
Diff. Ex. Tax Diff. Pump
Price
Diff. Ex. Tax. Diff.
Charlottetown 128.6

-

96.7

-

138.1

-

107.3

-

114.1

-

108.7

-

Moncton 127.3 -1.3 92.0 -4.7 139.3 +1.2 102.3 -5.0 123.2 +9.1 109.1 +0.4
Halifax 131.0 +2.4 90.4 -6.3 135.0 -3.1 100.1 -7.2 119.6 +5.5 113.9 +5.2
Fredericton 127.3 -1.3 91.9 -4.8 137.2 -0.9 100.5 -6.8 122.1 +8.0 108.0 -0.7
St. John's 137.6 +9.0 95.3 -1.4 150.3 +12.2 112.5 +5.2 122.0 +7.9 108.0 -0.7

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
 
Aug 18 $112.87 Aug 19 $114.53 Aug 20 $114.98
Aug 21 $121.18 Aug 22 $114.59 Aug 25 $115.11
Aug 26 $116.27 Aug 27 $118.15 Aug 28 $115.59

 
  Average Average Average
  2008 2007 2006
January $93.06 $54.43  
February $95.34 $59.42  
March $105.62 $60.86  
April $110.72 $64.08  
May $124.98 $63.54  
June $134.02 $67.46  
July $134.29 $73.80  
August $116.81 $72.17 $73.10
September   $79.52 $63.89
October   $85.19 $59.20
November   $94.95 $59.41
December   $91.24 $62.09

Commentary:


Crude futures remained relatively calm over the past two weeks. A one day dramatic rise of $5.00 per barrel on the 21st, and due primarily to a 90 basis point drop in the U.S. dollar on that day, was quickly reversed the next day as the dollar regained strength. Of late, of course, the market has been influenced by the threat of Hurricane Gustav which has the potential to wreak damage to offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and has caused many to think back to the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. While the market is wary of the storm's potential impact, at this point to the extent of $2 to $3 per barrel, industry experts point to the fact that Gustav does not, at least currently, possess the power exhibited by Katrina. In addition, some meteorologists including Joe Bartosik of WeatherBug are of the opinion the wind shear associated with the storm could shift Gustav's path closer toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and away from valuable oil installations. Of as much importance to the market are the underlying fundamentals which currently indicate a build in gasoline and distillate inventories in light of continued demand destruction in the North American market. Exports of diesel to Europe have significantly dropped off and refinery production has picked up this past week in anticipation of weather related interruptions. In addition, industry conversion away from the production of more expensive summer grade gasoline to more cheaply made winter grades has generated a sell off of remaining summer fuels which should result in a drop in NYMEX trading values for gasoline.

  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
August 27/08 $118.15 128.6 108.8 138.1
August 27/07 $71.97 100.3 72.8 102.4
YOY Diff. 46.18 28.3 36.0 35.7
% Change +64% +28% +49% +35%

 


1.  DOE Report - August 27, 2008:
 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
Crude -100,000

-8.3%

Gasoline -1,200,000

+1.5%

Distillates 0

+1.7%


Refinery Yield: N/A
Gasoline Demand: -1.6% YOY.

2. Demand Destruction Continues:


The U.S. DOE reported this week that demand for gasoline was down 1.6% over the same four week period last year. Additionally MasterCard this week reported that US gasoline demand as measured by retail sales data fell 4.5% just last week alone and this despite a 7 cent per gallon drop in prevailing market prices.


3. Production Issues:

Petro-Canada advised on Thursday that operations at its 135,000 barrel per day Edmonton refinery should be back to normal next week. The plant's catalytic cracker had been damaged and the forced shut down of the refinery last week resulted in gasoline shortages in Western Canada. Indeed, the situation resulted in refined product from Europe and Irving's Saint John refinery being diverted from New York Harbour to Gulf Coast ports for shipment via pipeline to the West, temporarily pressuring NYMEX gasoline prices last week.


Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil