MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
August 30, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Aug 19

$107.10
 

Aug 20

$104.96
 

Aug 21

$103.85
 

Aug 22

$105.03
 

Aug 23

$106.42
 

Aug 26

$105.92
 

Aug 27

$109.01
 

Aug 28

$110.10
 

Aug 29

$108.80
 Average Brent Crude for July: $110.28.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.76  $ 82.28  $96.40
July  $104.68  $ 87.93  $97.43
August  $106.49  $ 94.05  $86.23
September    $ 94.74  $86.13
October    $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Aug 28/13 $110.10 136.3 102.0 138.6
Aug 28/12 $ 96.33 125.5 102.8 127.5
YOY Diff. +13.77 +10.8 -0.8 +11.1
% Change +14.3% +8.6% -0.8% +8.7%

Commentary:

 

Both crude and refined product pricing has increased dramatically as of recent days and this largely due to increased Middle East geo-political tension.  Moreover, a number of factors including significant drawdown of Atlantic Coast gasoline inventories, a noted increased in demand and an unscheduled interruption of production at the Irving refinery in Saint John have combined to exert upward pressure on gasoline prices.  Additionally, an agricultural seasonally-related increase in demand for diesel and a continued strong pattern of export of furnace oil product to South America (due in part to refining complex production issues in Venezuela) are serving to impact distillate prices.

Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department "DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued August 28, 2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 3.0 million barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 600,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period by 169,000 b/d.

 US distillate inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels.

 Refinery utilization increased slightly to 91.2% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +3,000,000 -0.6%
 

Gasoline

 -600,000 +8.2%
 

Distillates

 -300,000 +2.3%
Source: DOE August 28, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate