MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
August 31, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Aug 20

$95.97
 

Aug 21

$96.68
 

Aug 22

$97.26
 

Aug 23

$96.27
 

Aug 24

$96.15
 

Aug 27

$95.47
 

Aug 28

$96.33
 

Aug 29

$95.40
 

Aug 30

$94.61
 Average Brent Crude for Aug $112.59. 
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.51  $89.44  $78.40
February  $102.26  $88.83  $76.16
March  $106.36  $102.74  $81.12
April  $103.18  $109.67  $84.46
May  $ 95.47  $101.29  $74.14
June  $ 82.28  $96.40  $75.39
July  $ 87.93  $97.43  $73.95
August  $ 94.05  $86.23  $77.00
September    $86.13  $75.55
October   $86.10  $81.99
November   $96.86  $84.25
December   $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Aug 29/12 $ 95.49 125.5 102.8 127.5
Aug 29/11 $ 87.27 118.9 96.9 121.5
YOY Diff. +8.22 +6.6 +5.9 +6.0
% Change +9.0% +6.0% +6.0% +4.9%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


As of August 29, 2012, U.S. crude inventory levels rose by 3.778 million barrels over the previous week’s inventory levels.  A rise in crude imports this past week was reasoned as the source of the increased inventory.  U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 1.509 million barrels over the past week.  Distillate product stocks rose by 873,000 barrels.  U.S. refinery utilization levels maintained a 92.5% capacity utilization for the period ended August 29, 2012.  Subsequent to this DOE report, many U.S. Gulf Coast refineries curtailed production associated with Hurricane Isaac. This may be reflected in next week’s DOE report.
 


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 +3,778,000 +2.1%
 

 Gasoline

 -1,509,000 -3.6%
 

Distillates

 +873,000 -19.2%

2.  U.S Economic Highlights:
 

  • The most recently issued MasterCard Spending Pulse report noted a fall in gasoline demand by 1.9 percent over the previous report.  MasterCard reports that gasoline demand fell 2.3 percent over year ago levels.

  • U.S. gasoline prices continue to rise with the national average price at $3.82/gallon.  Despite declining demand, gas prices continue to rise with geopolitical tension in the Middle East, refinery closures on the U.S. Atlantic Coast, a break in the Enbridge pipeline in the Midwest U.S. and fires at several U.S. refineries noted as causes for rising gasoline prices.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate