MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
August 31, 2015

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Aug 18

 $ 42.62

$ 48.81
 

Aug 19

 $ 40.80

$ 47.16
 

Aug 20

 $ 41.14

$ 46.62
 

Aug 21

 $ 40.45

$ 45.46
 

Aug 24

 $ 38.24

$ 42.69
 

Aug 25

 $ 39.31

$ 43.21
 

Aug 26

 $ 38.60

$ 43.14
 

Aug 27

 $ 42.56

$ 47.56
 

Aug 28

 $ 45.22

$ 50.05
 Average Brent Crude for Aug: $ 47.91.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2015 2014 2013
January  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 42.57 $ 96.08  $106.49
September   $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Aug 27/15 $ 42.56 107.5 70.9 101.3
Aug 27/14 $ 93.88 132.9 103.3 139.3
YOY Diff. -51.32 -25.4 -32.4 -38.0
% Change -54.7% -19.1% -31.4% -27.3%

Commentary:


Crude futures have fluctuated significantly over the past two-week period as concern over the health of the Chinese economy drove WTI trading prices below $39.00/bbl earlier in the period only to have speculative activity initiated by a renewed faith in the US economy allow prices to recover to in excess of $45.00/bbl on the 28th. Continued unscheduled refinery interruptions and concern over a pending tropical storm combined to exert upward pressure on refined product pricing late the period.

Economic Data:

1. Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued August 26, 2015, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 5,450,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 1,660,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.

US distillate inventories increased  by 1,400,000 barrels.  Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period by 516,000 barrels/day.

US refinery utilization rates decreased by 0.6% to 94.5% of capacity.

 
 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 -5,450,000 +25.0%
 

Gasoline

 +1,660,000 +1.0%
 

Distillates

 +1,400,000 +22.0%
Source: DOE August 26, 2015

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate