MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 August 31, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Aug 18

 $ 48.51

$ 52.72
 

Aug 21

 $ 47.37

$ 51.66
 

Aug 22

 $ 47.64

$ 51.87
 

Aug 23

 $ 48.41

$ 52.57
 

Aug 24

 $ 47.43

$ 52.04
 

Aug 25

 $ 47.87

$ 52.41
 

Aug 28

 $ 46.57

$ 51.89
 

Aug 29

 $ 46.44

$ 52.00
  Aug 30 $ 45.96

$ 50.86
 Average Brent Crude for August: $ 51.85.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.80  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 48.10  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September    $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Aug 29, 2017 $ 46.44 106.8 72.3 110.4
Aug 29, 2016 $ 46.98 99.9 70.2 100.7
YOY Diff. -0.54 +6.9 +2.1 +9.7
% Change -1.1% +6.9% +3.0% +9.6%

Commentary:


While crude prices have fallen off somewhat over the past two weeks and in much part due to the effects of Hurricane Harvey, refined product prices and, in particular, gasoline have increased dramatically over the past 72 hours.  The wind and rain associated with the storm have at this point impacted 3.4 million barrels per day or approximately 18% of total US gasoline production capacity.  Storm remnants now are approaching Louisiana so additional refining capacity may yet be effected.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued August 30, 2017, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 5,392,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 35,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand decreased 217,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories increased by 748,000 barrels.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 -5,392,000 -7.6%

Gasoline

 +35,000 -0.9%

Distillates

 +748,000 -3.6%
Source: DOE August 30, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate