MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
September 14, 2011

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Aug 31

$88.81
 

Sep 1

$88.93
 

Sep 2

$86.45
 

Sep 6

$86.02
 

Sep 7

$89.34
 

Sep 8

$89.05
 

Sep 9

$87.24
 

Sep 12

$88.19
 

Sep 13

$90.21
 
 
  Average Average Average
  2011 2010 2009
January  $89.44  $78.40 $41.96
February  $88.83  $76.16 $38.58
March  $102.74  $81.12  $47.96
April  $109.67  $84.46  $49.82
May  $101.29  $74.14  $55.96
June  $96.40  $75.39  $69.60
July  $97.43  $73.95  $63.93
August  $86.23  $77.00  $71.04
September  $88.18  $75.55  $69.08
October    $81.99  $75.56
November    $84.25  $78.31
December    $89.09  $73.88
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Sep 13/11 $90.21 123.9 99.9 125.2
Sep 13/10 $77.19 96.9 76.3 101.7
YOY Diff. +13.02 +27.0 +23.6 +23.5
% Change +17% +28% +31% +23%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment report, issued September 8, 2011 showed U.S. crude stocks with a decline of 3.963 million barrels. The inventory decline is attributed to a decline of imports due to Hurricane Irene. Gasoline stocks showed an inventory build associated with reduced implied demand. Inventory levels of distillate product increased by 708,000 million barrels.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 -3,963,000 -1.8%
 

 Gasoline

 +199,000 n/c
 

Distillates

 +709,000 -10.3%


The most recent U.S. refinery utilization reports issued Sept. 2 noted a decline in capacity utilization to 89.0 percent.


2.  U.S. Economic Highlights:
 
  •  MasterCard Spending Pulse report issued September 7 noted continued declining demand for gasoline in the U.S.  For the reporting period ending before the Labor Day holiday weekend, U.S. gasoline demand fell 4.2 percent year over year for the same period.
  •  President Barack Obama, in a speech to Congress, released a $447 billion job creation plan aimed at stimulating U.S. employment. This job creation plan is to be funded through the elimination of tax reductions to wealthy U.S. taxpayers. The plan has not received the support of Republicans in Congress due to the proposed tax increases.

3.  Other:
 

  •  Both OPEC and IEA have cut their expectations on oil demand for 2012 as a consequence of the deteriorating global economic activity. Both groups did note that despite anticipated reduced oil demand in 2012, oil demand will still be marginally higher than current supply of oil to the market.

  • The European financial situation continues to cause bearish financial market conditions and its resolution will have global economic implications. The possibility of Greece defaulting and its corresponding effects on other European countries is having significant influence on the financial markets.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil