MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 September 14, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Sep 1

 $ 47.29

$ 52.75
 

Sep 5

 $ 48.66

$ 53.38
 

Sep 6

 $ 49.16

$ 54.20
 

Sep 7

 $ 49.09

$ 54.49
 

Sep 8

 $ 47.48

$ 53.78
 

Sep 11

 $ 48.07

$ 53.84
 

Sep 12

 $ 48.23

$ 54.27
 

Sep 13

 $ 49.30

$ 55.16
     

 
 Average Brent Crude for August: $ 53.98.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.80  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 49.21  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $48.41  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Sep 13, 2017 $ 49.30 120.6 76.3 112.7
Sep 13, 2016 $ 44.90 101.0 70.2 100.7
YOY Diff. +4.40 +19.6 +6.1 +12.0
% Change +9.8% +19.4% +8.7% +11.9%

Commentary:

 

Crude pricing has been relatively stable as of late with the impact of Hurricane Irma on refining capacity offsetting geopolitical issues in Libya, North Africa and North Korea.

Refined product pricing and in particular gasoline has already started to moderate as refining capacity in Texas is being restored.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued September 13, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 5,888,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 8,428,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand increased by 456,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 3,215,000 barrels.

US refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.0% to 77.7% of capacity. 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +5,888,000 -2.5%

Gasoline

 -8,428,000 -4.4%

Distillates

 -3,215,000 -11.2%
Source: DOE September 13, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate