MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 September 29, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Sep 19

 $ 49.48

$ 55.14
 

Sep 20

 $ 50.41

$ 56.29
 

Sep 21

 $ 50.55

$ 56.43
 

Sep 22

 $ 50.66

$ 56.86
 

Sep 25

 $ 52.22

$ 59.02
 

Sep 26

 $ 51.88

$ 58.44
 

Sep 27

 $ 52.14

$ 57.90
 

Sep 28

 $ 51.56

$ 57.41
     

 
 Average Brent Crude for September: $ 55.58.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.80  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 49.21  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $49.78  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October    $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Sep 28, 2017 $ 51.56 111.8 76.3 112.7
Sep 28, 2016 $ 47.05 99.9 72.1 101.8
YOY Diff. +4.51 +11.9 +4.2 +10.9
% Change +9.6% +11.9% +5.8% +10.7%

Commentary:

 

Crude pricing remained relatively stable again over the past two weeks inching up slightly at the end of the period reflecting the restoration of refining operations in the Gulf Coast previously impacted by Hurricane Harvey.

As refining utilization continues to recover gasoline production has accordingly improved.  Given that summer demand is winding down moderation of gasoline prices is to be anticipated.  With the onset of colder weather, however, distillate demand will increase.  The hurricane related production interruptions coupled with this seasonably related increased demand will combine to create an upward pressure on distillates. 

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued September 27, 2017, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 1,846,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 1,107,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand increased by 81,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 814,000 barrels.

US refinery utilization rates increased by 5.4% to 88.6% of capacity. 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 -1,846,000 -0.2%

Gasoline

 +1,107,000 -4.4%

Distillates

 -814,000 -15.3%
Source: DOE September 27, 2017
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate