MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
September 30, 2015

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Sep 17

$ 46.90

$ 49.08

 

Sep 18

$ 44.68

$ 47.47

 

Sep 21

$ 46.68

$ 48.92

 

Sep 22

$ 45.83

$ 49.08

 

Sep 23

$ 44.48

$ 47.75

 

Sep 24

$ 44.91

$ 48.17

 

Sep 25

$ 45.70

$ 48.60

 

Sep 28

$ 44.43

$ 47.34

 

Sep 29

$ 45.23

$ 48.23

 Average Brent Crude for Aug: $ 48.59.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2015 2014 2013
January  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Sep 29/15 $ 45.23 104.1 74.9 108.2
Sep 29/14 $ 94.57 132.9 102.3 138.1
YOY Diff. -49.34 -28.8 -27.4 -29.9
% Change -52.2% -21.7% -26.8% -21.7%

Commentary:


Both WTI and Brent crude prices have been relatively stable over the past two weeks with WTI and Brent averaging $45 and $48 per barrel respectively.  Given OPEC's persistent commitment to current production levels, continued strong US domestic production and historically record level inventories, a dramatic change in crude pricing is not anticipated.

In light of same, significant changes in refined product pricing are also not expected in the foreseeable future. Typically gasoline prices fall at this time of year as summer demand subsides and cheaper winter grade gasoline is produced.  Indeed this year inventory levels of gasoline are running higher than normal as refineries have run at maximum capacity in order to take advantage of favorable production margins. To date, however, such savings have not been passed on to the marketplace.  The onset of colder weather and related increased demand will influence distillate prices though the lowered cost of crude this year should serve to mitigate marketplace price pressures.


Economic Data:

1. Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued September 23, 2015, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 1,925,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 1,369,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting period by 232,000 barrels/day.

US distillate inventories decreased  by 2,088,000 barrels.  

US refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.2% to 90.9% of capacity.

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

 

Crude

-1,925,000 +26.8%
 

Gasoline

+1,369,000 +4.0%
 

Distillates

-2,088,000 +18.1%
Source: DOE September 23, 2015

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate