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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
September 30, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
WTI |
Brent |
|
Sep 17 |
$ 46.90 |
$ 49.08 |
|
Sep 18 |
$ 44.68 |
$ 47.47 |
|
Sep 21 |
$ 46.68 |
$ 48.92 |
|
Sep 22 |
$ 45.83 |
$ 49.08 |
|
Sep 23 |
$ 44.48 |
$
47.75 |
|
Sep 24 |
$ 44.91 |
$ 48.17 |
|
Sep 25 |
$ 45.70 |
$ 48.60 |
|
Sep 28 |
$ 44.43 |
$ 47.34 |
|
Sep 29 |
$ 45.23 |
$ 48.23 |
Average
Brent Crude for Aug:
$ 48.59. |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
March |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
April |
$ 54.63 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
May |
$ 59.37 |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
June |
$ 59.76 |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
July |
$ 50.93 |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
August |
$ 42.89 |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
September |
$ 45.48 |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
October |
|
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
November |
|
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
December |
|
$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
|
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
Sep 29/15 |
$ 45.23 |
104.1 |
74.9 |
108.2 |
Sep 29/14 |
$ 94.57 |
132.9 |
102.3 |
138.1 |
YOY Diff. |
-49.34 |
-28.8 |
-27.4 |
-29.9 |
% Change |
-52.2% |
-21.7% |
-26.8% |
-21.7% |
|
|
Commentary: |
Both WTI and Brent
crude prices have been relatively stable over the past two
weeks with WTI and Brent averaging $45 and $48 per barrel
respectively. Given OPEC's persistent commitment to
current production levels, continued strong US domestic
production and historically record level inventories, a
dramatic change in crude pricing is not anticipated.
In
light of same, significant changes in refined product
pricing are also not expected in the foreseeable future.
Typically gasoline prices fall at this time of year as
summer demand subsides and cheaper winter grade gasoline is
produced. Indeed this year inventory levels of
gasoline are running higher than normal as refineries have
run at maximum capacity in order to take advantage of
favorable production margins. To date, however, such savings
have not been passed on to the marketplace. The onset
of colder weather and related increased demand will
influence distillate prices though the lowered cost of crude
this year should serve to mitigate marketplace price
pressures.
|
Economic Data: |
1. Platts Inventory
Update:
The US
Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued September 23, 2015, reported a decrease in US
crude stocks of 1,925,000 barrels.
US gasoline
inventories increased by 1,369,000 barrels over the previous
reporting period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this
reporting period by 232,000 barrels/day.
US distillate inventories
decreased by 2,088,000 barrels.
US
refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.2% to 90.9% of
capacity.
|
|
|
Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year % Change |
|
Crude |
-1,925,000 |
+26.8% |
|
Gasoline |
+1,369,000 |
+4.0% |
|
Distillates |
-2,088,000 |
+18.1% |
|
Source: DOE September 23, 2015 |
|
|
|
Legend: |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
F/O |
Furnace Oil |
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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