MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
September 30, 2016

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Sep 19

 $ 43.30

$ 45.95
 

Sep 20

 $ 43.44

$ 45.88
 

Sep 21

 $ 45.34

$ 46.83
 

Sep 22

 $ 46.32

$ 47.65
 

Sep 23

 $ 44.48

$ 45.89
 

Sep 26

 $ 45.93

$ 47.35
 

Sep 27

 $ 44.67

$ 45.97
 

Sep 28

 $ 47.05

$ 48.69
 

Sep 29

 $ 47.83

$ 49.24
 Average Brent Crude for September: $ 47.13.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average Average
  2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September  $ 45.08 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October   $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Sep 28/16 $ 47.05 99.9 72.1 102.9
Sep 28/15 $ 44.43 104.1 74.9 108.2
YOY Diff. +2.62 -4.2 -2.8 -5.3
% Change +5.9% -4.0% -3.7% -4.9%

Commentary:


Crude pricing has escalated over the past two weeks and driven primarily by a weaker US dollar and OPEC resolve to eliminate global crude surplus by imposition of member country production freezes.  As for refined product pricing, gasoline wholesale prices have risen significantly initially due to supply interruptions related to the colonial pipeline incident and more recently by the onset of November futures contracts which appear to be factoring in late fall scheduled refinery maintenance activity.  Distillate pricing as well has escalated as increased exports to Mexico and South America and rising crude costs are factored in.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued September 28, 2016, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 1,882,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 2,027,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  Implied demand decreased by 770,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 1,915,000 barrels.  


US refinery utilization rates decreased by 1.9% to 90.1% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 -1,882,000 +9.8%

Gasoline

 +2,027,000 +2.3%

Distillates

 -1,915,000 +7.6%
Source: DOE September 28, 2016
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate