MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 11, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 



Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Oct. 1

$102.04

 

Oct. 2

$104.10

 

Oct. 3

$103.31

 

Oct. 4

$103.84

 

Oct. 7

$103.03

 

Oct. 8

$103.49

 

Oct. 9

$101.61

 

Oct. 10

$103.01

     
 Average Brent Crude for October: $109.54.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.76  $ 82.28  $96.40
July  $104.68  $ 87.93  $97.43
August  $106.49  $ 94.05  $86.23
September  $106.64  $ 94.74  $86.13
October  $103.05  $ 89.72 $86.10
November    $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel
CDN  Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Oct. 8/13 $103.49 128.4 105.0 140.9
Oct. 8/12 $ 89.33 133.0 105.3 130.5
YOY Diff. +14.16 -4.6 -0.3 +10.4
% Change +15.9% -3.5% -0.3% +8.0%

Commentary:

While gasoline wholesale pricing remains favourable due to reduced seasonal demand and continued inventory builds, distillate prices continue to escalate.  Upward pressure on distillate pricing appears to have a variety of supporting factors.  The somewhat improved US economy has resulted in increased commercial traffic with a related increase in demand for diesel.  Increased exports of domestically produced diesel has also played a role.  In addition, due to current US Department of Environment regulations non-ethanol blended highway diesel production attracts government tariffs referred to as Renewable Identification Numbers or RIN's.  Some refiners in an attempt to reduce such costs have substituted furnace oil for offshore diesel export contracts thus pressuring existing heating oil inventories.  WTI crude pricing has been relatively stable over past two weeks averaging $103.06 over the period with market concern over the US budget crisis being the primary influence.


Economic Data:

Platts Inventory Update:
  • The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued October 9, 2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 6,810,000 barrels.
  • US gasoline inventories increased by 149,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting period by 319,000 b/d.
  •  US distillate inventories decreased by 3,140,000 barrels.
  •  Refinery utilization decreased to 86.0% of production capacity.
 

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

 

Crude

+6,810,000 +1.1%
 

Gasoline

+149,000 +12.5%
 

Distillates

-3,140,000 +4.2%
Source: DOE October 8, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:

DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate