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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 11, 2013
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl) |
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Oct. 1 |
$102.04 |
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Oct. 2 |
$104.10 |
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Oct. 3 |
$103.31 |
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Oct. 4 |
$103.84 |
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Oct. 7 |
$103.03 |
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Oct. 8 |
$103.49 |
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Oct. 9 |
$101.61 |
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Oct. 10 |
$103.01 |
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Average
Brent Crude for October: $109.54. |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
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January |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
$89.44 |
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February |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
$88.83 |
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March |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
$102.74 |
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April |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
$109.67 |
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May |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
$101.29 |
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June |
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
$96.40 |
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July |
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
$97.43 |
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August |
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
$86.23 |
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September |
$106.64 |
$
94.74 |
$86.13 |
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October |
$103.05 |
$
89.72 |
$86.10 |
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November |
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$
85.87 |
$96.86 |
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December |
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$
88.06 |
$98.51 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Oct. 8/13 |
$103.49 |
128.4 |
105.0 |
140.9 |
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Oct. 8/12 |
$ 89.33 |
133.0 |
105.3 |
130.5 |
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YOY Diff. |
+14.16 |
-4.6 |
-0.3 |
+10.4 |
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% Change |
+15.9% |
-3.5% |
-0.3% |
+8.0% |
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Commentary: |
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While
gasoline wholesale pricing remains favourable due to reduced
seasonal demand and continued inventory builds, distillate
prices continue to escalate. Upward pressure on distillate
pricing appears to have a variety of supporting factors.
The somewhat improved US economy has resulted in increased
commercial traffic with a related increase in demand for
diesel. Increased exports of domestically produced diesel
has also played a role. In addition, due to current US
Department of Environment regulations non-ethanol blended
highway diesel production attracts government tariffs
referred to as Renewable Identification Numbers or RIN's.
Some refiners in an attempt to reduce such costs have
substituted furnace oil for offshore diesel export contracts
thus pressuring existing heating oil inventories. WTI crude
pricing has been relatively stable over past two weeks
averaging $103.06 over the period with market concern over
the US budget crisis being the primary influence.
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Economic Data: |
Platts Inventory Update: |
- The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued
October 9,
2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of
6,810,000 barrels.
- US gasoline
inventories increased by 149,000 barrels over the
previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand
increased in this reporting period by 319,000 b/d.
- US
distillate inventories decreased by 3,140,000 barrels.
-
Refinery
utilization decreased to 86.0% of production capacity.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year % Change |
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Crude |
+6,810,000 |
+1.1% |
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Gasoline |
+149,000 |
+12.5% |
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Distillates |
-3,140,000 |
+4.2% |
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Source: DOE October 8, 2013 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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