MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 12, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Oct 1

$92.48
 

Oct 2

$91.89
 

Oct 3

$88.14
 

Oct 4

$91.71
 

Oct 5

$89.88
 

Oct 8

$89.33
 

Oct 9

$92.39
 

Oct 10

$91.25
 

Oct 11

$92.07
 Average Brent Crude for Oct $112.37
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.51  $89.44  $78.40
February  $102.26  $88.83  $76.16
March  $106.36  $102.74  $81.12
April  $103.18  $109.67  $84.46
May  $ 95.47  $101.29  $74.14
June  $ 82.28  $96.40  $75.39
July  $ 87.93  $97.43  $73.95
August  $ 94.05  $86.23  $77.00
September  $ 94.74  $86.13  $75.55
October  $ 91.01 $86.10  $81.99
November   $96.86  $84.25
December   $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Oct 10/12 $ 91.25 133.0 105.3 130.5
Oct 10/11 $ 85.41 117.5 99.9 123.9
YOY Diff. +5.84 +15.5 +5.4 +6.6
% Change +7.0% +13.0% +5.0% +5.0%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


As of Oct. 11, 2012, U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.672 million barrels, in line with analysts' expectations and are 10.45% above the five year average inventory level.  Inventories of U.S. gasoline stocks declined by 534,000 barrels.  The largest decrease in gasoline inventories occurred in the U.S. Atlantic Coast district.  U.S. gasoline stocks are 3.9% below the five year average gasoline inventory level.  U.S. distillate stocks fell by 3.177 million barrels.  U.S. distillate stocks are 20.18% below the five year average inventory levels.  The largest distillate declines were experienced in the U.S. Atlantic Coast district.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 +1,672,000 +1.1%
 

 Gasoline

 -534,000 -4.8%
 

Distillates

 -3,177,000 -18.9%

2.  U.S Economic Highlights:
 

  •  U.S. gasoline demand raised by 0.7% for the period ended Oct. 2 according to MasterCard's SpendingPulse bi-weekly report on consumer spending.

  • According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration ("EIA"), U.S. households which use heating oil will face record prices this winter. The EIA is projecting households to spend 19% more for heating oil this year over last years' prices. Only 6% of U.S. homes use heating oil for space heating with 80% of those households located in the U.S. northeast. Distillate product supplies continue to be significantly below prior year levels on the U.S. Atlantic Coast.

  • Continued tensions between Turkey and Syria are causing the Brent crude spread to increase which is causing further pressure on Atlantic Coast refinery production which use crude indexed to Brent pricing.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate