MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 October 13, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Oct 3

 $ 50.42

$ 56.00
 

Oct 4

 $ 49.98

$ 55.80
 

Oct 5

 $ 50.79

$ 57.00
 

Oct 6

 $ 49.29

$ 55.62
 

Oct 9

 $ 49.58

$ 55.79
 

Oct 10

 $ 50.92

$ 56.61
 

Oct 11

 $ 51.30

$ 56.94
 

Oct 12

 $ 50.60

$ 56.25
     

 
 Average Brent Crude for October: $ 56.24.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.80  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 48.06  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $49.88  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October $50.38  $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Oct 12, 2017 $ 56.25 108.3 78.8 114.4
Oct 12, 2016 $ 50.18 104.1 75.3 106.3
YOY Diff. +6.07 +4.2 +3.5 +8.1
% Change +12.1% +4.0% +4.6% +7.6%

Commentary:

 

Some nominal fluctuation in crude pricing over the past two weeks as increased US domestic production (now averaging 9.24 million barrels per day) and hurricane related reduced demand pressures were offset by OPEC forecasts of increased global demand in 2018, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Kurdistan.
 

As for refined product pricing, refinery production interruptions (refinery fire at Trainor, Pennsylvania) have impacted rack pricing as of late though this should be a temporary condition. Increased exports of diesel to Europe coupled with seasonal harvest related demand, has pressured diesel rack pricing this far this fall. Additionally, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction this week at 13% colder temperatures this coming winter will impact heating oil prices going forward.
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate