MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 14, 2009

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel):
Oct 1 $70.82 Oct 2 $69.95 Oct 5 $70.41
Oct 6 $70.88 Oct 7 $69.57 Oct 8 $71.69
Oct 9 $71.77 Oct 12 $73.27 Oct 13 $74.15
 
  Average Average Average
  2009 2008 2007
January $41.96 $93.06 $54.43
February $38.58 $95.34 $59.42
March  $47.96 $105.62 $60.86
April  $49.82 $110.72 $64.08
May  $55.96 $124.98 $63.54
June  $69.60 $134.02 $67.46
July  $63.93 $134.29 $73.80
August  $71.04 $116.81 $72.17
September  $69.08 $104.27 $79.52
October  $71.05 $76.72 $85.19
November   $57.44 $94.95
December   $42.17 $91.24

Commentary:


Crude prices escalated by almost $2 per barrel over the past two weeks averaging $71.00 thus far in October. A fluctuating U.S. dollar, conflicting reports as to the health of the U.S. and other foreign economies and the related speculative reaction to both continue to be the primary determining factors influencing crude prices as of late. Refined product prices have defied market fundamentals as of late and have risen significantly despite the existence of record inventory levels and stagnant demand. Increased demand from Europe and South America coupled with reduced North American refinery production have also contributed to recent refined product market price escalation.
 
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Oct 13/09       $74.15 93.1 70.6 91.8
Oct 13/08 $81.19 115.5 98.3 126.0
YOY Diff. -7.04 -22.4 -27.7 -34.2
% Change -9% -19% -28% -27%

 

1.  DOE Report:
 

DOE Report delayed until Thursday this week due to NYMEX holiday on Monday.

2. Demand:
 

• A Spending Pulse report by MasterCard released on Tuesday showed that American motorists consumed 2.4% less gas during the week ended Friday.
• Crude prices rose sharply on Tuesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted that world oil demand will be stronger this coming year than it had anticipated.

3.  Economic:
 

On Tuesday crude rose on NYMEX by $0.88 to $74.15 a barrel after touching seven week high of $74.47. Oil prices have climbed in recent weeks in response to a lower U.S. dollar as investors look for safer havens to hedge against inflation and a declining U.S. currency. Recent global demand revisions on the part of OPEC and the International Energy Agency have also served to under-pin current market price trends.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil