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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 14, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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Oct 3 |
$77.61 |
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Oct 4 |
$75.67 |
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Oct 5 |
$79.68 |
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Oct 6 |
$82.59 |
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Oct 7 |
$82.98 |
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Oct 10 |
$85.41 |
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Oct 11 |
$85.81 |
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Oct 12 |
$85.57 |
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Oct 13 |
$84.23 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
$96.40 |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
$97.43 |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
$86.23 |
$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
$86.13 |
$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
$82.17 |
$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Oct 12/11 |
$85.57 |
119.6 |
99.9 |
123.9 |
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Oct 12/10 |
$81.67 |
100.6 |
80.0 |
104.3 |
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YOY Diff. |
+3.9 |
+19.0 |
+19.9 |
+19.6 |
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% Change |
+5% |
+19% |
+25% |
+19% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory
assessment, issued October 13, 2011, reported that oil inventories rose
last week. A combination of a build in oil imports and refineries
reducing their utilization rates are partial reasons for the rise in
crude inventories. Crude oil inventory rose 1.3 million barrels,
gasoline inventories fell 4.1 million barrels and distillate product
inventories (i.e. diesel and heating oil) fell 2.9 million barrels.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+1,300,000 |
-6.35% |
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Gasoline |
-4,100,000 |
-3.93% |
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Distillates |
-2,900,000 |
-10.57% |
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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- MasterCard Spending Pulse report issued October 12 noted continued
declining demand for gasoline in the
U.S. The most recent estimate is a
decline of 2.5 percent last week from a year earlier.
•
U.S. unemployment rates continue to hold at 9.1 percent; however, the
U.S.
economy added a better than expected 103,000 jobs in September.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration ("EIA") is projecting
record winter household heating oil prices in the
U.S. Northeast. The
U.S.
Northeast region accounts for 80% of
U.S. heating oil consumption.
•The EIA notes the growing price discrepancy between heating oil and
natural gas and the transformation of
U.S. households to natural gas
heating fuel. The EIA attributes the rising heating oil prices to the
cost of crude and the rising demand in emerging markets such as China.
3. Other:
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-
China's trade surplus narrowed for a second straight month in
September, as both imports and exports were lower than expected,
suggesting global economic weakness and domestic cooling of economic
activity.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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