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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 29, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Oct 18 |
$83.08 |
Oct 19 |
$79.49 |
Oct 20 |
$81.77 |
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Oct 21 |
$80.56 |
Oct 22 |
$81.69 |
Oct 25 |
$82.52 |
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Oct 26 |
$82.55 |
Oct 27 |
$81.94 |
Oct 28 |
$82.18 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
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January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
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February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
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March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
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April |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
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May |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
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June |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
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July |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
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August |
$77.00 |
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
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September |
$75.55 |
$69.08 |
$104.27 |
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October |
$81.99 |
$75.56 |
$76.72 |
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November |
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$78.31 |
$57.44 |
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December |
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$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices remained in the low $80 range over the past two weeks with
minor changes attributable primarily to fluctuations in the value of the
U.S. dollar. With OPEC quota limits recently left unchanged, a tightened
credit policy emerging in China and surplus global crude inventories,
speculative related activities have been the primary determinant of
crude markets as of late. Meanwhile, refined product pricing lately has
been impacted by the strike related refinery production problems in
France which has diverted diesel products, in particular, from East
Coast Atlantic markets to Europe. The situation in France currently
appears to be easing, however, and given that the hurricane season is
coming to an end, more traditional market pricing trends should be
observed in the near future.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Oct 27/10 |
$82.55 |
102.6 |
81.8 |
107.4 |
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Oct 27/09 |
$78.68 |
101.0 |
77.3 |
99.1 |
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YOY Diff. |
+3.87 |
+1.6 |
+4.5 |
+8.3 |
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% Change |
+5.0% |
+1.0% |
+6.0% |
+8.0% |
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1. DOE Report: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+5,000,0000 |
+7.7% |
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Gasoline |
-4,400,000 |
+3.0% |
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Distillates |
-1,600,000 |
+0.4% |
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Refinery Yield |
N/A |
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Demand |
See Below |
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2. Demand:
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- U.S.
gasoline demand decreased 1.7% last week, the largest week-to-week
decline since Sept 10, according to MasterCard's Spending Pulse
report. Retail gas consumption was down 1.7% from the previous week
and down 2.7% from the same week a year ago.
- Barclay's Capital has reported that China's implied oil demand in
September rose 5.1% year on year. Coupled with a record high level
of crude oil imports and the second-highest refinery runs ever,
Chinese oil data has consistently outperformed market expectations
according to analysts at the Barclay's Capital Group.
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3. Economic:
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- The
Conference Board consumer confidence index for October stood at
50.2, up from 48.6 in September beating consensus forecasts of 49.0.
However, the index level remained vey close to historic lows.
Consumer confidence is seen as a pivotal indicator of the health of
the U.S. economy which is driven mostly by consumer spending.
- Investors have been
pushing oil prices higher since the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated
in late August that it's prepared to pour more money into the
nation's economy to spur growth. That led to a steep weakening of
the dollar. Because oil is priced in U.S. dollars, when the dollar
falls, oil gets cheaper for holders of foreign currency so they buy
more and send the price higher.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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