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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 31, 2011
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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Oct 18 |
$88.34 |
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Oct 19 |
$86.11 |
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Oct 20 |
$85.30 |
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Oct 21 |
$87.40 |
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Oct 24 |
$91.27 |
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Oct 25 |
$93.17 |
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Oct 26 |
$90.20 |
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Oct 27 |
$93.96 |
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Oct 28 |
$93.32 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
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January |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
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February |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
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March |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
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April |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
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May |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
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June |
$96.40 |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
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July |
$97.43 |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
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August |
$86.23 |
$77.00 |
$71.04 |
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September |
$86.13 |
$75.55 |
$69.08 |
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October |
$86.10 |
$81.99 |
$75.56 |
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November |
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$84.25 |
$78.31 |
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December |
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$89.09 |
$73.88 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Oct 28/11 |
$93.32 |
123.8 |
102.4 |
128.6 |
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Oct 28/10 |
$82.18 |
104.7 |
81.8 |
107.4 |
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YOY Diff. |
+11.14 |
+19.1 |
+20.6 |
+21.2 |
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% Change |
+14% |
+18% |
+25% |
+20% |
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Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory
assessment report, issued October 26, 2011, noted oil inventories jumped
with increased imports a big component of the rising inventory levels.
In addition, U.S. refineries increased utilization rates to 84.8% of
capacity. Nationally, U.S. gasoline inventories fell 1.353 million
barrels mainly attributed to weak imports. However, on the Atlantic
coast U.S. gasoline inventories rose 1.244 million barrels, benefiting
from the increased refinery utilization and declining demand. Distillate
inventory levels fell 4.275 million barrels in the past week. Both ultra
low sulphur diesel and heating oil product inventory levels declined. Of
particular concern, distillate inventory levels on the U.S. Atlantic
Coast are 21% below year ago levels at a time when heating oil demand
rises.
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+4,735,000 |
-7.8% |
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Gasoline |
-1,353,000 |
-4.6% |
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Distillates |
-4,099,000 |
-13.64% |
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2. U.S. Economic Highlights:
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-
MasterCard's weekly SpendingPulse report issued Oct 25, 2011 noted
gasoline demand was down 2.8% last week compared to the same week last
year and declined 1.5% compared to the previous week.
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U.S.
economy appears to have improved in the July to September quarterly
results, with total national output for the period indicating annual
growth of 2.5 percent. The previous quarter's results were 1.3 percent
and it is believed that growth of 4 percent is needed to improve the
U.S.
unemployment rate.
-
U.S.
consumer confidence index edged up in October for the second straight
month, suggesting
U.S.
consumers feeling more upbeat on the
U.S.
economy in general.
3. Other:
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-
The European Union appears to have presented a plan aimed at improving
the economic performance of several of its member countries ahead of
this week's G7 and next week's G20 economic summit. The financial
markets reacted positively to this economic signal with increases to
most major stock market indexes and increased commodity prices for oil.
The future success of the European Unions financial plan appears to rest
on the probability of countries, like China, buying into the European
Financial Stability Facility bonds.
-
The financial markets, along with commodity prices, will likely be
influenced by investor reactions to the information and events
surrounding the economic summit next week in France.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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