|
|
MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 31, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
|
Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
|
WTI |
Brent |
|
|
Oct 20 |
$ 82.71 |
$ 85.40 |
|
|
Oct 21 |
$ 82.81 |
$ 86.22 |
|
|
Oct 22 |
$ 80.52 |
$ 84.71 |
|
|
Oct 23 |
$ 82.09 |
$ 86.83 |
|
|
Oct 24 |
$ 81.01 |
$
86.13 |
|
|
Oct 27 |
$ 81.00 |
$ 85.83 |
|
|
Oct 28 |
$ 81.42 |
$ 86.03 |
|
|
Oct 29 |
$ 82.20 |
$ 87.12 |
|
|
Oct 30 |
$ 81.12 |
$ 86.24 |
Average
Brent Crude for October:
$ 88.21. |
|
West Texas Intermediate |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
|
February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
|
March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
|
April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
|
May |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
|
June |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
|
July |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
|
August |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
|
September |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
|
October |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
|
November |
|
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
|
December |
|
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Oct 29/14 |
$ 82.20 |
123.7 |
98.8 |
135.0 |
|
Oct 29/13 |
$ 98.20 |
127.2 |
105.8 |
143.2 |
|
YOY Diff. |
-16.00 |
-3.5 |
-7.0 |
-8.2 |
|
% Change |
-16.3% |
-2.8% |
-6.6% |
-5.7% |
|
|
Commentary: |
|
Crude pricing
continued to hover around $80.00 per barrel over the past
two weeks as concern over a weaker global demand was met
with news of ever-increasing domestic U.S. crude production
and indications that OPEC might leave existing production
quotas in place influenced market pricing.
Market observers are calling for continued price depression
as world oil markets continue to be well supplied.
Should this be the case, additional reductions in refined
product pricing could be afforded.
|
Economic Data: |
|
|
The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued October 29, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 2,100,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
decreased by 1,200,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period.
US
distillate inventories decreased by 5,300,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization decreased by 0.1% to
86.6% of capacity.
|
|
|
|
Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
|
|
Crude |
+2,100,000 |
-1.1% |
|
|
Gasoline |
-1,200,000 |
-5.0% |
|
|
Distillates |
-5,300,000 |
-1.9% |
|
|
Source: DOE October 29, 2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
|