MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
October 31, 2016

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Oct 18

 $ 50.29

$ 51.68
 

Oct 19

 $ 51.60

$ 52.67
 

Oct 20

 $ 50.43

$ 51.38
 

Oct 21

 $ 50.85

$ 51.78
 

Oct 24

 $ 50.52

$ 51.46
 

Oct 25

 $ 49.96

$ 50.79
 

Oct 26

 $ 49.18

$ 49.98
 

Oct 27

 $ 49.72

$ 50.47
 

Oct 28

 $ 48.70

$ 49.71
 Average Brent Crude for October: $ 51.44.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average Average
  2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October  $ 50.09 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November   $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Oct 27/16 $ 49.72 107.0 83.3 116.6
Oct 27/15 $ 43.20 99.5 79.9 113.9
YOY Diff. +6.52 +7.5 +3.4 +2.7
% Change +15.1% +7.5% +4.3% +2.4%

Commentary:


Both WTI and Brent pricing have been relatively stable over the past two weeks with both currently hovering around $50.00 per barrel.  Market preoccupation with a potential OPEC supply reduction agreement has been the primary influence on market pricing as of late.  A strong US dollar and supply interruptions in Venezuela have acted to temper any significant pricing deflation. 

With regard to refined product pricing, barring any supply disruptions off-season demand and adequate inventory levels should yield stability for gasoline prices.  The increased demand for distillates associated with the onset of colder weather and harvest related activities will continue to pressure diesel and furnace oil prices.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued October 26, 2016, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 553,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 1,989,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  Implied demand increased by 320,000 b/d.
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 3,354,000 barrels.  


US refinery utilization rates increased by 0.6% to 85.6% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 -553,000 +4.5%

Gasoline

 -1,989,000 +3.4%

Distillates

 -3,354,000 +7.3%
Source: DOE October 26, 2016
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate