MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 October 31, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Oct 19

 $ 51.29

$ 57.23
 

Oct 20

 $ 51.47

$ 57.75
 

Oct 23

 $ 51.90

$ 57.37
 

Oct 24

 $ 52.47

$ 58.33
 

Oct 25

 $ 52.18

$ 58.44
 

Oct 26

 $ 52.64

$ 59.30
 

Oct 27

 $ 53.90

$ 60.44
 

Oct 30

 $ 54.15

$ 60.90
     

 
 Average Brent Crude for October: $ 57.47.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.80  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 48.06  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $49.88  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October $51.46  $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November    $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Oct 30, 2017 $ 54.15 111.4 80.6 116.5
Oct 31, 2016 $ 46.86 107.0 83.3 115.5
YOY Diff. +7.29 +4.4 -2.7 +1.0
% Change +15.6% +4.1% -3.2% +0.9%

Commentary:

Both Brent and WTI crude price references have increased by approximately 5% over the past two weeks and buoyed primarily by the post-Harvey continued recovery of the US refining complex and by continued resolve on the part of Saudi Arabia and Russia to have the existing OPEC reduced production agreement extended into 2018.

Refined product wholesale prices have escalated as well as the lingering effects of Hurricane Harvey related refinery interruptions have impacted inventory levels.  This, coupled with increased exports of US produced refined product to both South America and Europe and the increased seasonal demand for distillates, has resulted in a significant upward pressure on all refined products.


Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department (“DOE”) weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued October 25, 2017, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 856,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 5,465,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. 

US distillate inventories decreased by 5,246,000 barrels.  
 

US refinery utilization rates increased by 3.3% to 87.8% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +856,000 -2.3%

Gasoline

 -5,465,000 -4.0%

Distillates

 -5,246,000 -15.2%
Source: DOE October 25, 2017

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate