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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 13, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Nov 3 |
$79.60 |
Nov 4 |
$80.40 |
Nov 5 |
$79.62 |
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Nov 6 |
$77.43 |
Nov 9 |
$79.43 |
Nov 10 |
$79.02 |
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Nov 11 |
$79.28 |
Nov 12 |
$76.94 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
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January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
$72.17 |
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September |
$69.08 |
$104.27 |
$79.52 |
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October |
$75.56 |
$76.72 |
$85.19 |
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November |
$79.12 |
$57.44 |
$94.95 |
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December |
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$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices remained relatively stable
over the past two weeks as conflicting reports over the extent of global
economic recovery and the fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar continue
to be the primary price determinants as of late. Refined product
pricing, on the other hand, has settled into a cyclical pattern of
escalated market pricing when supply is perceived to be tight and
deflated pricing when the market is flooded with either imports or
domestically produced product. A warmer than normal fall coupled with
historically record high inventory levels has damped furnace oil prices
thus far, while a slowly recovering economy has held gasoline and diesel
demand in check.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Nov 10/09 |
$79.05 |
104.7 |
79.8 |
102.2 |
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Nov 10/08 |
$62.41 |
92.9 |
86.9 |
112.4 |
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YOY Diff. |
+16.64 |
+11.8 |
-7.1 |
-10.2 |
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% Change |
+26.6% |
+12.7% |
-8.0% |
-9.0% |
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1. DOE Report November 12, 2009: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+1,800,000 |
+8.3% |
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Gasoline |
+2,500,000 |
+6.4% |
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Distillates |
+300,000 |
+30.0% |
Refinery yield: up 0.4% to
81%
Demand: Gasoline down 1.9% vs. pervious week |
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2. Demand Related:
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• The Air Transport Association of America predicted
on Monday that “the number of passengers traveling on US airlines
during the 12 day Thanksgiving holiday window is expected to drop 4%
year-on-year despite discounted airfares, with travel demand crushed by
unfavorable economic conditions.”
• The Cambridge Energy Research Associates commented this past week that
“while the economy has shown signs of recovery, world energy demand will
continue to slide as automakers build cars with better mileage and
countries embrace alternative fuels”.
• China's leading refineries will raise their crude processing slightly
in November to a record high in reaction to continuing signs of
recovering demand in that country.
• OPEC, this week, raised its forecast for world oil growth slightly
though cautioning that due to enhanced conservation efforts fuel
consumption may not return to levels seen before the global economic
slowdown.
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3.
Economic:
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The U.S. government reported on Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate
jumped to 10.2% in October as 190,000 jobs were lost, highlighting the
ongoing struggles of an economy emerging from recession. "The Labour
Department report viewed as one of the best indicators of economic
momentum showed a rise in the jobless rate up from 9.8% in September to
10.2% in October, the highest since 1983."
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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