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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 13, 2015
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Nov 2 |
$ 46.14 |
$ 48.79 |
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Nov 3 |
$ 47.90 |
$ 50.54 |
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Nov 4 |
$ 46.32 |
$ 48.58 |
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Nov 5 |
$ 45.20 |
$ 47.98 |
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Nov 6 |
$ 44.29 |
$
47.42 |
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Nov 9 |
$ 43.87 |
$ 47.19 |
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Nov 10 |
$ 44.21 |
$ 47.44 |
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Nov 11 |
$ 42.93 |
$ 45.81 |
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Nov 12 |
$ 41.76 |
$ 44.06 |
Average
Brent Crude for Nov:
$ 47.53. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
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January |
$ 47.56 |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
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February |
$ 50.78 |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
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March |
$ 47.87 |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
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April |
$ 54.63 |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
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May |
$ 59.37 |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
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June |
$ 59.76 |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
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July |
$ 50.93 |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
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August |
$ 42.89 |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
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September |
$ 45.48 |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
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October |
$ 46.29 |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
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November |
$ 44.74 |
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
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December |
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$ 59.82 |
$ 97.87 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Nov 12/15 |
$ 41.76 |
97.1 |
79.9 |
111.8 |
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Nov 12/14 |
$ 77.18 |
118.9 |
96.3 |
133.8 |
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YOY Diff. |
-35.42 |
-21.8 |
-16.4 |
-22.0 |
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% Change |
-45.9% |
-18.3% |
-17.0% |
-16.4% |
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Commentary: |
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Both Brent and WTI
crude trading values fell approximately 8% over the past two
weeks as the downward pressures of a strengthening US dollar
combined with OPEC's renewed commitment to existing
production quotas outweighed production interruptions in
Brazil and Libya and a continued strong demand for gasoline
in both the US and Europe as market determinants.
Looking forward, recent reports from OPEC and API predicting
a continued global surplus position of crude should limit
the impact of any temporary supply interruption and support
stability of crude prices for the foreseeable future.
As
for refined production, supply disruptions from the US Gulf
Coast and continued strong exports of diesel and gasoline to
Europe have impacted NYHBR pricing as of late. The
onset of the American Thanksgiving holiday typically
provides support for a temporary period of increased
wholesale pricing of gasoline. Additionally, the
arrival of seasonally related colder weather should serve to
pressure distillate demand and pricing.
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Economic Data: |
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1. Platts Inventory
Update:
The US
Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory
assessment, issued November 11, 2015, reported an increase in US
crude stocks of 4,224,000 barrels.
US gasoline
inventories decreased by 2,102,000 barrels over the previous
reporting period.
US distillate inventories
increased by 352,000 barrels.
US
refinery utilization rates increased by 0.8% to 89.5% of
capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+4,224,000 |
+28.7% |
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Gasoline |
-2,102,000 |
+4.8% |
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Distillates |
+352,000 |
+20.8% |
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Source: DOE November 11, 2015 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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