MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 14, 2011

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Oct 31

$93.19
 

Nov 1

$92.19
 

Nov 2

$92.51
 

Nov 3

$94.07
 

Nov 4

$94.26
 

Nov 7

$95.52
 

Nov 8

$96.80
 

Nov 9

$95.74
 

Nov 10

$97.78
 
 
  Average Average Average
  2011 2010 2009
January  $89.44  $78.40 $41.96
February  $88.83  $76.16 $38.58
March  $102.74  $81.12  $47.96
April  $109.67  $84.46  $49.82
May  $101.29  $74.14  $55.96
June  $96.40  $75.39  $69.60
July  $97.43  $73.95  $63.93
August  $86.23  $77.00  $71.04
September  $86.13  $75.55  $69.08
October $86.10  $81.99  $75.56
November $94.86  $84.25  $78.31
December    $89.09  $73.88
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 9/11 $95.74 117.5 102.4 128.6
Nov 9/10 $86.72 101.0 81.8 106.4
YOY Diff. +9.02 +16.5 +20.6 +22.2
% Change +10% +16% +25% +21%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


A steady inflation of crude pricing has been observed over the past two week period with crude prices rising almost $7 per barrel since November 1st. Market preoccupation with the European debt crisis and its resultant impact on the value of the U.S. dollar vs the Euro have been primary determinants. In latter days the change in political leadership in both Greece and Italy have been interpreted by the market as positive developments. Eroded inventory positions in the U.S. triggered in large part by increased exports of distillate products to South and Central America have also contributed to this inflationary trend.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year
 

 Crude

 -1,400,000 -7.3%
 

 Gasoline

 -2,100,000 -2.9%
 

Distillates

 -6,000,000 -15%

2.  Economic Highlights:
 
  • U.S. Labor Department reported on Thursday that jobless benefit applications fell last week to the lowest level since April.
  • University of Michigan reported on Friday that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index rose from 60.9 in October to 64.2 in November.

3.  Demand:
 
  • U.S. jet fuel consumption in September fell 9.7% from August and was down 2.3% from September 2010, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported Tuesday.
  • Platts reported on Thursday that U.S. distillate stocks plunged 6.02 million barrels with increased exports to South and Central America sparking the decline.
  • Increased industrial production in India, Southeast Asia and China has increased demand for distillates in these areas of the world.
  • Furnace oil consumption in U.S. has dropped as cheaper alternatives such as natural gas and electricity have become more viable options.
  • Failed sugar cane crop in Brazil has reduced ethanol production with increased imported diesel being used as a substitute.
  • Continued use of North American produced furnace oil as a diesel substitute by some South American countries;
  • Increased automobile traffic in China, Asia and India as the emerging middle class in those areas of the world becomes more mobile. 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil