MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 14, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Nov 1

$ 94.61
 

Nov 4

$ 94.62
 

Nov 5

$ 93.37
 

Nov 6

$ 94.80
 

Nov 7

$ 94.20
 

Nov 8

$ 94.60
 

Nov 11

$ 95.14
 

Nov 12

$ 93.04
 

Nov 13

$ 93.88
 Average Brent Crude for November: $105.63.
 
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.76  $ 82.28  $96.40
July  $104.68  $ 87.93  $97.43
August  $106.49  $ 94.05  $86.23
September  $108.47  $ 94.74  $86.13
October  $100.74  $ 89.72 $86.10
November  $ 94.25  $ 85.87 $96.86
December    $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 12/13 $ 93.04 128.4 107.8 144.9
Nov 12/12 $ 85.57 119.4 107.3 132.1
YOY Diff. +7.47 + 9.0 +0.5 +12.8
% Change +8.7% +7.5% +0.5% +9.6%

Commentary:


NYMEX market pricing for both WTI and Brent crude has been relatively stable over the past 14 days averaging $94.30 and $105.44 respectively. This, of course, marks a significant reduction from October's averages of $100.74 (WTI) and $109.47 (Brent) as crude prices fell due to 1) reduced Middle East tension in both Syria and Iran, 2) ever growing domestic U.S. crude production and related inventory build and 3) the continued overall sluggish growth of the North American economy.

Refinery maintenance and seasonal product changeover procedures have impacted New York Harbour refined product inventories in recent days and this coupled with an uptick in demand, presumably related to more favourable U.S. job creation as of late, has served to exert an upward pressure on wholesale gasoline prices over the past week. Continued strong export of diesel and furnace oil have underpinned distillate prices. The return to production of USAC refineries (last week recorded at only 66% utilization) and a predicted drop in ULSD shipments to Europe as a result of increased tanker rates should serve to reduce pressure on wholesale prices in coming weeks.

Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued October 30, 2013, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 4,100,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 1,700,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand decreased in this reporting period by 257,000 b/d.

 US distillate inventories decreased by 3,100,000 barrels.

 Refinery utilization increased to 87.3% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +4,100,000 +2.9%
 

Gasoline

 -1,700,000 +7.2%
 

Distillates

 -3,100,000 +4.1%
Source: DOE October 30, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate