MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 14, 2014

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Nov 3

 $ 78.78

$ 84.78
 

Nov 4

 $ 77.19

$ 82.82
 

Nov 5

 $ 78.68

$ 82.95
 

Nov 6

 $ 77.91

$ 82.86
 

Nov 7

 $ 78.65

$ 83.39
 

Nov 10

 $ 77.40

$ 82.34
 

Nov 11

 $ 77.94

$ 81.67
 

Nov 12

 $ 77.18

$ 80.38
  Nov 13 $ 74.21 $ 77.92
 Average Brent Crude for November: $ 82.12.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2014 2013 2012
January  $ 94.73  $ 94.70  $100.51
February  $100.57  $ 95.50  $102.26
March  $100.46  $ 92.73  $106.36
April  $102.15  $ 89.59  $103.18
May  $101.79  $ 94.93  $ 95.47
June  $105.14  $ 95.76  $ 82.28
July $102.39  $104.68  $ 87.93
August $ 96.08  $106.49  $ 94.05
September $ 93.03  $106.24  $ 94.74
October $ 84.52  $100.74  $ 89.72
November $ 77.55  $ 94.00  $ 85.87
December    $ 97.87  $ 88.06
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 12/14 $ 77.18 118.9 96.3 133.8
Nov 12/13 $ 93.04 128.4 107.8 144.9
YOY Diff. -15.86 -9.5 -11.5 -11.1
% Change -17.0% -7.4% -10.7% -7.7%

Commentary:


Crude prices continued to fall over the past two weeks with WTI down in excess of $3.00 per bbl since November, and, at $77.00 per bbl, is now trading at approximately 20% below price levels seen on September 1, 2014.

A suspect global economy, growing crude inventory levels, a relatively stable geo-political environment and increased domestic North American crude production have all contributed to the current market dynamic.

Economic Data:

Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued November 13, 2014, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 1,700,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 1,800,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.

US distillate inventories decreased by 2,800,000 barrels. 

US refinery utilization decreased by 1.7% to 90.1% of capacity.
  
DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 -1,700,000 -2.5%
 

Gasoline

 +1,800,000 -2.7%
 

Distillates

 -2,800,000 -0.4%
Source: DOE November 13, 2014

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate