MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 14, 2016

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Nov 1

 $ 46.67

$ 48.14
 

Nov 2

 $ 45.34

$ 46.86
 

Nov 3

 $ 44.66

$ 46.35
 

Nov 4

 $ 44.07

$ 45.58
 

Nov 7

 $ 44.89

$ 46.15
 

Nov 8

 $ 44.98

$ 46.04
 

Nov 9

 $ 45.27

$ 46.36
 

Nov 11

 $ 43.41

$ 44.75
 

 

  

 
 Average Brent Crude for October: $ 46.28.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average Average
  2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October  $ 50.09 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November  $ 44.91 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 11/16 $ 43.41 107.0 83.3 116.6
Nov 11/15 $ 42.93 97.1 79.9 111.8
YOY Diff. +0.48 +9.9 +3.4 +4.8
% Change +1.1% +10.2% +4.3% +4.3%

Commentary:


Both Brent and WTI trading prices have decreased somewhat dramatically over the past two weeks with both now down approximately 7% since November 1.  With pre-election tension subsiding the markets appear to be refocusing on global oversupply and overproduction issues.  While OPEC plans to meet later this month to consider new production quotas, member nations continue to flood the market raising doubt that an effective agreement can be reached.

With regard to refined products the restoration of both refinery and pipeline capacity as of late has served to depress current wholesale marketing of all refined products.  The wrap-up of the fall harvesting season and the prevalence of mild weather have both combined to reduce pressure on distillate pricing.

 

Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued November 9, 2016, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 2,432,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 2,841,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.  
 
US distillate inventories decreased by 1,948,000 barrels.  


US refinery utilization rates increased by 1.9% to 87.1% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 +2,432,000 +6.6%

Gasoline

 -2,841,000 +3.6%

Distillates

 -1,948,000 +5.3%
Source: DOE November 9, 2016
 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate