MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 28, 2014

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Nov 14

 $ 78.82

$ 79.41
 

Nov 17

 $ 75.64

$ 79.31
 

Nov 18

 $ 74.61

$ 78.47
 

Nov 19

 $ 74.58

$ 78.10
 

Nov 20

 $ 75.58

$ 79.33
 

Nov 21

 $ 76.51

$ 80.36
 

Nov 24

 $ 75.78

$ 79.68
 

Nov 25

 $ 74.09

$ 78.33
  Nov 26 $ 73.69 $ 77.75
 Average Brent Crude for November: $ 80.55.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2014 2013 2012
January  $ 94.73  $ 94.70  $100.51
February  $100.57  $ 95.50  $102.26
March  $100.46  $ 92.73  $106.36
April  $102.15  $ 89.59  $103.18
May  $101.79  $ 94.93  $ 95.47
June  $105.14  $ 95.76  $ 82.28
July $102.39  $104.68  $ 87.93
August $ 96.08  $106.49  $ 94.05
September $ 93.03  $106.24  $ 94.74
October $ 84.52  $100.74  $ 89.72
November $ 76.35  $ 94.00  $ 85.87
December    $ 97.87  $ 88.06
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 26/14 $ 73.69 116.2 102.2 133.7
Nov 26/13 $ 93.68 128.4 107.8 144.9
YOY Diff. -19.99 -12.2 -5.6 -11.2
% Change -27.1% -10.5% -5.5% -8.4%

Commentary:


Crude prices continued their dramatic fall over the past two weeks with continued strong US domestic production (now in excess of 9 million barrels/day), market preoccupation with weaker demand from China and Europe and, more recently, OPEC's decision not to cut quotas in light of increased global supply and falling crude market pricing.
 
Regionally, refined product wholesale pricing has been impacted by tight US Atlantic coast gasoline inventory levels (now at lowest level since December 2012) and pressured distillate stock levels due to increased exports to Europe and the arrival of colder weather.
 
 Notwithstanding, sustained depressed crude market pricing has impacted refined product pricing resulting in a downward pressure on wholesale rack pricing.

Economic Data:

Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued November 26, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 1,900,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 1,800,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.

US distillate inventories decreased by 1,600,000 barrels. 

US refinery utilization increased by 0.3% to 91.5% of capacity.
  
DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 -1,900,000 +2.6%
 

Gasoline

 +1,800,000 +7.9%
 

Distillates

 -1,600,000 n/a
Source: DOE November 26, 2014

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate