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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 30, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Nov 17 |
$79.14 |
Nov 18 |
$79.58 |
Nov 19 |
$77.46 |
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Nov 20 |
$76.72 |
Nov 23 |
$77.56 |
Nov 24 |
$76.02 |
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Nov 25 |
$77.96 |
Nov 26 |
- |
Nov 27 |
$76.05 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
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January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
$72.17 |
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September |
$69.08 |
$104.27 |
$79.52 |
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October |
$75.56 |
$76.72 |
$85.19 |
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November |
$78.31 |
$57.44 |
$94.95 |
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December |
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$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices softened somewhat over the
past two week period in reaction to a somewhat improved U.S. dollar,
fluctuating equity markets and continued overall weak demand. Thursday's
news of the Dubai financial crisis impacted global currency markets with
investors scurrying to shift into relatively safe U.S. treasury assets,
eventually driving up the value of the U.S. dollar which in turn
depressed oil prices. Gasoline prices have stabilized with reduced
demand counterbalanced by reduced refinery output. Warmer than normal
weather thus far has served to keep furnace oil prices in check.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Nov 25/09 |
$77.96 |
101.0 |
78.0 |
100.3 |
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Nov 25/08 |
$50.77 |
80.9 |
82.4 |
107.1 |
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YOY Diff. |
+27.19 |
+20.1 |
-4.4 |
-6.8 |
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% Change |
+53.5% |
+25.% |
-5.0% |
-6.0% |
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1. DOE Report November 25, 2009:
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
+1,000,000 |
+5.3% |
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Gasoline |
+1,000,000 |
+4.8% |
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Distillates |
-500,000 |
+31.7% |
Refinery yield: 80.3% (up
from 79.4% last week).
Demand: See below. |
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2. Demand Related:
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• The AAA estimates that 33.2 million people will
travel by car this Thanksgiving weekend compared to 32.5 million last
year. Air travel, however, was projected to decline 6.7% or 2.3 million
travelers compared to 2.5 million in 2008.
• U.S. retail gasoline demand fell 1.4% year-on-year for the survey week
ending November 20th according to a sales data report released Tuesday
by MasterCard.
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3.
Economic:
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• The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the U.S.
economy grew at a rate of 2.8% between July and September, short of
estimates of a 3.5% growth rate for the same period.
• According to a recent OPEC forecast, global oil demand will reach 85.1
million barrels a day in 2010, an increase of 0.9% or 0.8 million more
barrels a day over this year. Specifically, OPEC predicts that demand
will increase 3.7% in China and 3.34% in the Middle East, while dropping
1.25% in Western Europe.
• Crude oil prices dropped to nearly $74 a barrel on Friday as Dubai's
debt problems affected world markets and raised concern about the
prospects for global economic recovery. Dubai has experienced
unprecedented growth over the past decade and the semiautonomous
city-state has spent billions on sprawling man-made islands, an indoor
ski slope and the world's largest tower. Its main funding vehicle,
Dubai World, said it would ask creditors for a "standstill" on paying
back its $60 billion debt until at least May.
• Petromatrix Research, a Swiss based energy consultancy, on Friday
noted that "overall U.S. demand for petroleum products remains weak" and
that most OPEC countries are exceeding their production quota despite
the uncertain market for crude.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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