MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
November 30, 2015

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Nov 13

 $ 40.74

$ 43.61
 

Nov 16

 $ 41.74

$ 44.56
 

Nov 17

 $ 40.67

$ 43.57
 

Nov 18

 $ 40.75

$ 44.14
 

Nov 19

 $ 40.54

$ 44.18
 

Nov 20

 $ 40.39

$ 44.66
 

Nov 23

 $ 41.75

$ 44.83
 

Nov 24

 $ 42.87

$ 46.12
 

Nov 25

 $ 43.04

$ 46.17
 Average Brent Crude for November: $ 46.09.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2015 2014 2013
January  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November $ 43.06 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December   $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 25/15 $ 43.04 98.5 81.7 114.7
Nov 25/14 $ 74.09 116.2 97.3 134.9
YOY Diff. -31.05 -17.7 -15.6 -20.2
% Change -41.9% -15.2% -16.0% -15.0%

Commentary:


Crude pricing essentially stabilized this past two weeks settling in the low forty dollar range.  Market preoccupation with growing surplus inventory positions and stagnant global demand tended to limit fluctuations in trading values.  In the absence of geopolitical tensions, crude prices are anticipated to stay this way for the near future.

As for refined product, the onset of the US Thanksgiving holiday and its related increased traffic did exert an upward pressure on wholesale gasoline prices.  The return to full production of Irving's Saint John refinery and scheduled additional imports of European gasoline cargoes into the region should serve to moderate and indeed depress such prices going forward.  As for distillates, continued milder than normal weather on the Atlantic coast has resulted in inventory build up and corresponding reduced wholesale pricing for both furnace oil and diesel.

Economic Data:

1. Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued November 25, 2015, reported an increase in US crude stocks of 961,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 2,478,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied demand decreased by 133,000.

US distillate inventories increased by 1,046,000 barrels.  

US refinery utilization rates increased by 0.6% to 93.3% of capacity.

 
 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 +961,000 +27.5%
 

Gasoline

 +2,478,000 +5.0%
 

Distillates

 +1,046,000 +24.9%
Source: DOE November 25, 2015

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate