MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
 November 30, 2017

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Nov 16

 $ 55.14

$ 61.36
 

Nov 17

 $ 56.55

$ 62.72
 

Nov 20

 $ 56.09

$ 62.22
 

Nov 21

 $ 56.83

$ 62.57
 

Nov 22

 $ 58.02

$ 63.32
 

Nov 27

 $ 58.11

$ 63.84
 

Nov 28

 $ 57.99

$ 63.61
 

Nov 29

 $ 57.30

$ 63.11
     

 
 Average Brent Crude for November: $ 62.74.
 
West Texas Intermediate
    Average Average Average Average
  2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
January  $ 52.60  $ 31.78  $ 47.56  $ 94.73  $ 94.70
February $ 53.43  $ 30.62  $ 50.78  $100.57  $ 95.50
March $ 49.63  $ 37.96  $ 47.87  $100.46  $ 92.73
April  $ 51.22  $ 41.12  $ 54.63  $102.15  $ 89.59
May  $ 48.55  $ 46.80  $ 59.37  $101.79  $ 94.93
June $ 45.16  $ 48.85 $ 59.76  $105.14  $ 95.76
July $ 46.80  $ 44.95 $ 50.93 $102.39  $104.68
August $ 48.06  $ 44.80 $ 42.89 $ 96.08  $106.49
September $49.88  $ 45.23 $ 45.48 $ 93.03  $106.24
October $51.46  $ 49.94 $ 46.29 $ 84.52  $100.74
November $56.50  $ 45.81 $ 42.94 $ 77.55  $ 94.00
December    $ 52.17 $ 37.33 $ 59.82  $ 97.87
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Nov 28, 2017 $ 57.99 116.6 87.2 124.1
Nov 28, 2016 $ 47.08 99.9 78.9 110.4
YOY Diff. +10.91 +16.7 +8.3 +13.7
% Change +23.2% +16.7% +10.5% +12.4%

Commentary:

Both Brent and WTI crude futures increased over the past two week period, rising 3% and 6% respectively.  Increased market apprehension concerning Russia's reluctance to endorse a potential extension of OPEC's production quota agreement has been the primary reason for the increased pressure on crude pricing.  OPEC members meet November 30 in Vienna to discuss the merits of extending the voluntary reduction of crude production.   

With regard to refined product pricing, the return to production of a number of refineries which were temporarily offline due to fall maintenance coupled with increased import activities has resulted in the moderation of gasoline prices.  Seasonal demand continues to influence diesel and furnace oil pricing.


Economic Data:

1.  Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department (“DOE”) weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued November 29, 2017, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 3,429,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 3,627,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. 

US distillate inventories increased by 2,747,000 barrels.  
 

US refinery utilization rates increased by 1.3% to 92.6% of capacity.

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change

Crude

 -3,429,000 -7.1%

Gasoline

 +3,627,000 -5.3%

Distillates

 +2,747,000 -17.1%
Source: DOE Novenber 29, 2017

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate