MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 13, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Dec 2

 $93.82

$111.45
 

Dec 3

 $96.04

$112.62
 

Dec 4

 $97.20

$111.88
 

Dec 5

 $97.38

$110.98
 

Dec 6

 $97.65

$111.61
 

Dec 9

 $97.34

$109.39
 

Dec 10

 $98.51

$109.38
 

Dec 11

 $97.44

$109.71
 

Dec 12

 $97.50

$108.67
 Average Brent Crude for December: $110.63.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.76  $ 82.28  $96.40
July  $104.68  $ 87.93  $97.43
August  $106.49  $ 94.05  $86.23
September  $108.47  $ 94.74  $86.13
October  $100.74  $ 89.72 $86.10
November  $ 94.00  $ 85.87 $96.86
December  $ 96.99  $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Dec 11/13 $ 97.44 130.6 111.8 149.5
DEc 11/12 $ 85.79 118.9 105.3 130.0
YOY Diff. +11.65 +11.7 +6.5 +19.5
% Change +13.6% +9.8% +6.2% +15.0%

Commentary:


Brent crude pricing has been relatively stable at $109.00 per bbl over the past two weeks while WTI has risen in excess of 5% ($4.72) and now stands at $97.44.  The recent resolution of Libya's oil terminal dispute should result in an increased supply to international markets which in turn should trigger additional reductions in Brent market pricing.

The return to production status of a number of East Coast refineries should serve to increase inventories of refined products, therefore easing pressure on wholesale prices of gasoline and distillates.

Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued December 11, 2013, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 10,590,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories increased by 6,720,000 barrels over the previous reporting period.

US distillate inventories decreased by 4,540,000 barrels.

Refinery utilization increased to 92.6% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 -10,590,000 +0.7%
 

Gasoline

 +6,720,000 +0.9%
 

Distillates

 +4,540,000 0%
Source: DOE December 11, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate