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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 14, 2010
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Dec 1 |
$86.75 |
Dec 2 |
$88.00 |
Dec 3 |
$89.19 |
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Dec 6 |
$89.38 |
Dec 7 |
$88.69 |
Dec 8 |
$88.28 |
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Dec 9 |
$88.37 |
Dec 10 |
$87.79 |
Dec 13 |
$88.61 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
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January |
$78.40 |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
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February |
$76.16 |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
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March |
$81.12 |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
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April |
$84.46 |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
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May |
$74.14 |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
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June |
$75.39 |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
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July |
$73.95 |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
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August |
$77.00 |
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
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September |
$75.55 |
$69.08 |
$104.27 |
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October |
$81.99 |
$75.56 |
$76.72 |
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November |
$84.25 |
$78.31 |
$57.44 |
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December |
$88.30 |
$73.88 |
$42.17 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices continued to escalate over the past two weeks, again
influenced primarily by a depressed U.S. dollar and continued optimism
as to the state of recovery of the U.S. and Chinese economies. Indeed,
the International Energy Agency on Friday increased its estimate of
global oil demand for 2011 citing higher usage in both North America and
China. Refined product pricing has been impacted both by the steadily
increased price of crude and the lingering effects of production
interruptions as a result of refinery maintenance issues.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Dec 10/10 |
$87.79 |
107.8 |
84.8 |
110.0 |
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Dec 10/09 |
$70.54 |
101.0 |
78.0 |
100.2 |
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YOY Diff. |
+17.25 |
+6.8 |
+6.8 |
+9.8 |
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% Change |
+24.5% |
+6.7% |
+8.7% |
+9.8% |
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1. DOE Report: |
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
-3,800,0000 |
+6.0% |
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Gasoline |
+3,800,000 |
-1.0% |
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Distillates |
+2,200,000 |
-4.2% |
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Refinery Yield |
82.6% |
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Demand |
See Below |
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2. Demand:
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The International Energy Agency reported on Friday that
"the resilience
of U.S. gasoline demand has been a surprise in recent months".
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3. Economic:
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•
Bloomberg recently reported that China's Purchasing Manager's Index
increased to 55.2 from 54.7 in October according to the country's
logistics federation.
• The U.S. Commerce Department last week revised its third quarter gross
domestic product growth figure up to 2.5% from its earlier estimate of
2.0%. The Commerce Department went on to say that third-quarter consumer
spending increased at its fastest pace in almost four years.
• Bloomberg reports that oil prices jumped to the highest level since
October 2008 last week on cold-weather forecasts for the U.S. and Europe
and speculation the U.S. may extend stimulus measures causing the dollar
to weaken. A declining dollar boosts the appeal of commodities as an
alternative investment.
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4. Other:
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OPEC member nations met in Quito, Ecuador on Friday and determined at
that time to maintain existing production quotas. Ministers form the
12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries said that a
"fragile global economic recovery" and "fears of a second banking crisis
in Europe" kept the cartel from raising oil production at this time.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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