MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 14, 2012

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 
 

Crude Track:
  Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl)
 

Dec 3

$89.09
 

Dec 4

$88.50
 

Dec 5

$87.88
 

Dec 6

$86.26
 

Dec 7

$85.93
 

Dec 10

$85.56
 

Dec 11

$85.79
 

Dec 12

$86.77
 

Dec 13

$85.89
 Average Brent Crude for Nov: $108.49
 
  Average Average Average
  2012 2011 2010
January  $100.51  $89.44  $78.40
February  $102.26  $88.83  $76.16
March  $106.36  $102.74  $81.12
April  $103.18  $109.67  $84.46
May  $ 95.47  $101.29  $74.14
June  $ 82.28  $96.40  $75.39
July  $ 87.93  $97.43  $73.95
August  $ 94.05  $86.23  $77.00
September  $ 94.74  $86.13  $75.55
October  $ 89.72 $86.10  $81.99
November  $ 85.87 $96.86  $84.25
December  $ 86.85 $98.51  $89.09
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Dec 12/12 $ 86.77 118.9 105.3 130.0
Dec 12/11 $ 97.77 114.9 104.8 131.8
YOY Diff. -11.00 +4.0 -0.5 -1.8
% Change -11.3% +3.5% +0.5% -1.4%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:


The weekly U.S. Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment, issued Dec 12, 2012, reported an increase in U.S. crude stocks. Crude oil inventories increased by 843,000 barrels which was mainly attributed to a slight increase in imports, higher domestic production and reduced refinery runs. U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 5 million barrels, significantly above industry expectations. High refinery run rates for this time of year more than offset the small increase in demand leading to the gasoline inventory build. U.S. distillate product (diesel and heating oil) inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels. Demand for heating oil was unseasonably low due to the mild weather; however, U.S. Atlantic Coast distillate product inventory, which includes heating oil, continues to be significantly below prior year levels.


DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

 Crude

 +843,000 +11.5%
 

 Gasoline

 +5,000,000 -0.01%
 

Distillates

 +2,986,000 -16.6%
Source: DOE December 12, 2012

2.  Items of Interest:
 

  • MasterCard states gasoline demand decreased by 3.7 percent last week despite declines in average pump prices. 

  • Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. continued their recent drop on Monday of this week, with the average cost now at $3.34 a gallon, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report. The price fell a penny from the prior day, and is down from $3.39 a week ago and $3.45 a gallon a month ago. Still, gasoline prices are about five cents above their year-ago level of $3.29 a gallon.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate