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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 15, 2014
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Recent Crude (US$/bbl) |
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WTI |
Brent |
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Dec 2 |
$ 66.88 |
$ 70.54 |
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Dec 3 |
$ 67.38 |
$ 69.92 |
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Dec 4 |
$ 66.81 |
$ 69.64 |
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Dec 5 |
$ 65.84 |
$ 69.07 |
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Dec 8 |
$ 63.05 |
$
66.19 |
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Dec 9 |
$ 63.82 |
$ 66.84 |
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Dec 10 |
$ 60.94 |
$ 64.24 |
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Dec 11 |
$ 59.95 |
$ 63.68 |
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Dec 12 |
$ 57.81 |
$ 61.85 |
Average
Brent Crude for December:
$ 67.45. |
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West Texas Intermediate |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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|
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
|
January |
$ 94.73 |
$ 94.70 |
$100.51 |
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February |
$100.57 |
$ 95.50 |
$102.26 |
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March |
$100.46 |
$ 92.73 |
$106.36 |
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April |
$102.15 |
$ 89.59 |
$103.18 |
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May |
$101.79 |
$ 94.93 |
$
95.47 |
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June |
$105.14 |
$ 95.76 |
$
82.28 |
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July |
$102.39 |
$104.68 |
$
87.93 |
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August |
$ 96.08 |
$106.49 |
$
94.05 |
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September |
$ 93.03 |
$106.24 |
$
94.74 |
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October |
$ 84.52 |
$100.74 |
$
89.72 |
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November |
$ 77.55 |
$ 94.00 |
$
85.87 |
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December |
$ 64.15 |
$ 97.87 |
$
88.06 |
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Dec 12/14 |
$ 57.81 |
107.5 |
94.3 |
126.3 |
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Dec 12/13 |
$ 97.50 |
130.6 |
111.8 |
149.5 |
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YOY Diff. |
-39.69 |
-23.1 |
-17.5 |
-23.2 |
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% Change |
-40.7% |
-17.7% |
-15.7% |
-15.5% |
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Commentary: |
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Crude continues its
precipitous fall with both Brent and WTI having fallen in
excess of $5.00 per barrel since December 1. A continued
build in U.S. reported crude and finished product inventory
levels, OPEC resolve not to cut production quotas and a
strengthening U.S. dollar have all contributed to this
somewhat dramatic erosion of crude trading futures.
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Economic Data: |
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The US Energy
Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment,
issued December 10, 2014, reported an increase in US crude stocks
of 1,450,000 barrels.
US gasoline inventories
increased by 8,200,000 barrels over the previous reporting
period.
US
distillate inventories increased by 5,580,000 barrels.
US refinery utilization increased by 2.0% to
95.4% of capacity.
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Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
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Crude |
+1,450,000 |
+1.5% |
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Gasoline |
+8.200,000 |
-1.1% |
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Distillates |
+5,580,000 |
+3.1% |
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Source: DOE December 10, 2014 |
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
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