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MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 31, 2009
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
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Crude Track (In U.S. $ per Barrel): |
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Dec 17 |
$72.65 |
Dec 18 |
$73.36 |
Dec 21 |
$72.47 |
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Dec 22 |
$74.40 |
Dec 23 |
$76.67 |
Dec 24 |
$78.05 |
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Dec 28 |
$78.77 |
Dec 29 |
$78.87 |
Dec 30 |
$79.28 |
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Average |
Average |
Average |
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2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
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January |
$41.96 |
$93.06 |
$54.43 |
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February |
$38.58 |
$95.34 |
$59.42 |
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March |
$47.96 |
$105.62 |
$60.86 |
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April |
$49.82 |
$110.72 |
$64.08 |
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May |
$55.96 |
$124.98 |
$63.54 |
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June |
$69.60 |
$134.02 |
$67.46 |
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July |
$63.93 |
$134.29 |
$73.80 |
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August |
$71.04 |
$116.81 |
$72.17 |
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September |
$69.08 |
$104.27 |
$79.52 |
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October |
$75.56 |
$76.72 |
$85.19 |
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November |
$78.31 |
$57.44 |
$94.95 |
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December |
$73.88 |
$42.17 |
$91.24 |
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Commentary: |
Crude prices rose significantly over
the past two weeks reacting to DOE reported inventory declines,
fluctuating U.S. dollar values and indications of improved U.S. economic
performance. Refined products increased in trading value as well as
demand increased while production and import levels declined. Gasoline
spot market prices reacted to increased holiday traffic while distillate
prices were influenced by the arrival of sustained cold weather.
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US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
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CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
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Dec 28/09 |
$78.77 |
96.1 |
76.5 |
100.2 |
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Dec 28/08 |
$40.02 |
72.0 |
70.1 |
95.0 |
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YOY Diff. |
+38.75 |
+24.1 |
+6.4 |
+5.2 |
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% Change |
+97.0% |
+33.% |
+9.0% |
+5.0% |
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1. DOE Report December 30, 2009:
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Weekly (bbl) |
Year over Year |
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Crude |
-1,500,000 |
+2.2% |
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Gasoline |
-300,000 |
+3.7% |
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Distillates |
-2,000,000 |
+17.1% |
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2. Demand:
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The American Automobile Association is predicting a 3.8%
increase in the number of holiday travelers this year compared to last
year.
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3.
Economic:
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•
On December 23
reported sales of newly built U.S. single family homes unexpectedly
dropped 11.3% last month to a 355,000 unit annual rate. Analysts had
forecast an increase to 440,000 units. The data reminded investors that
the path to recovery will be bumpy.
• On December 28th a report from Spending Pulse estimated that U.S.
retail spending was up 3.6% this holiday season compared with a year
earlier.
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4.
Weather:
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• Meteorologist Paul Pastelok of AccuWeather reported that east of the
Mississippi, the weather is not expected to improve soon with Arctic
temperatures to be around for at least the next two weeks.
• Cold weather will raise U.S. consumption of heating fuels by 6.7% in
the next seven days according to forecasts from Weather Derivatives.
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Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
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