|
|
MARKET
ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 31, 2012
The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.
|
|
|
Recent WTI Crude (US$/bbl) |
|
|
Dec 17 |
$87.20 |
|
|
Dec 18 |
$87.93 |
|
|
Dec 19 |
$89.51 |
|
|
Dec 20 |
$90.13 |
|
|
Dec 21 |
$88.66 |
|
|
Dec 24 |
$88.61 |
|
|
Dec 26 |
$90.98 |
|
|
Dec 27 |
$90.87 |
|
|
Dec 28 |
$90.80 |
Average
Brent Crude for December:
$109.10 |
| |
Average |
Average |
Average |
|
|
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
|
January |
$100.51 |
$89.44 |
$78.40 |
|
February |
$102.26 |
$88.83 |
$76.16 |
|
March |
$106.36 |
$102.74 |
$81.12 |
|
April |
$103.18 |
$109.67 |
$84.46 |
|
May |
$
95.47 |
$101.29 |
$74.14 |
|
June |
$
82.28 |
$96.40 |
$75.39 |
|
July |
$
87.93 |
$97.43 |
$73.95 |
|
August |
$
94.05 |
$86.23 |
$77.00 |
|
September |
$
94.74 |
$86.13 |
$75.55 |
|
October |
$
89.72 |
$86.10 |
$81.99 |
|
November |
$
85.87 |
$96.86 |
$84.25 |
|
December |
$
88.06 |
$98.51 |
$89.09 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
US $
Per Barrel |
CDN
Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
CDN Cents
Per Litre |
| |
CRUDE |
RUL |
F/O |
DIESEL |
|
Dec 28/12 |
$ 90.87 |
114.7 |
103.3 |
128.5 |
|
Dec 28/11 |
$101.34 |
115.9 |
101.3 |
128.1 |
|
YOY Diff. |
-10.47 |
-1.2 |
+2.0 |
+0.4 |
|
% Change |
-10.33% |
+1.03% |
+2% |
+0.3% |
|
|
Commentary: |
1. Platts Inventory Update: |
The weekly U.S.
Energy Department ("DOE") petroleum inventory
assessment, issued Dec 19, 2012 reported a decrease in
U.S. crude stocks which was mainly attributed to a
decrease in imports and increased refinery runs. Crude
oil inventories decreased by 964,000 barrels. U.S.
gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels
with the higher refinery run rates for this time of
year. U.S. distillate product (diesel and heating oil)
inventory decreased by 1.085 million barrels. The
increased demand for distillate product is typical for
this time of year.
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly
(bbl) |
Year over Year
% Change |
|
|
Crude |
-964,000 |
+14.8% |
|
|
Gasoline |
+2,207,000 |
-0.04% |
|
|
Distillates |
-1,085,000 |
-15.9% |
|
|
U.S. refinery utilization rose by 2.2 percent to 91.5%. |
|
Source: DOE December 19, 2012 |
|
2. Item of Interest:
|
-
MasterCard states
gasoline demand increased by 4.5 percent last week over
the previous week and demand was 3.3 percent below prior
year levels for the same weekly period. MasterCard
states that 2012 year to date fuel consumption is 3.6
percent below 2011 levels. The average pump price in
the U.S. continues to decline, down 8 cents/gallon from
the previous week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend: |
| DOE |
Department of Energy |
| RUL |
Regular Unleaded Gasoline |
| F/O |
Furnace Oil |
|
WTI |
West Texas Intermediate |
|
|