MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 31, 2013

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Dec 17

 $ 97.22

$108.44
 

Dec 18

 $ 97.80

$109.63
 

Dec 19

 $ 98.77

$110.29
 

Dec 20

 $ 99.32

$111.77
 

Dec 23

 $ 98.91

$111.56
 

Dec 24

 $ 99.22

$111.90
 

Dec 26

 $ 99.55

$111.98
 

Dec 27

 $100.32

$112.18
 

Dec 30

 $ 99.29

$111.21
 Average Brent Crude for December: $110.70.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2013 2012 2011
January  $ 94.70  $100.51  $89.44
February  $ 95.50  $102.26  $88.83
March  $ 92.73  $106.36  $102.74
April  $ 89.59  $103.18  $109.67
May  $ 94.93  $ 95.47  $101.29
June  $ 95.76  $ 82.28  $96.40
July  $104.68  $ 87.93  $97.43
August  $106.49  $ 94.05  $86.23
September  $108.47  $ 94.74  $86.13
October  $100.74  $ 89.72 $86.10
November  $ 94.00  $ 85.87 $96.86
December  $ 97.87  $ 88.06 $98.51
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Dec 27/13 $100.32 129.5 113.3 149.5
DEc 27/12 $ 90.87 114.7 103.3 128.5
YOY Diff. +9.45 +14.8 +10.0 +21.0
% Change +10.4% +12.9% +9.7% +16.3%

Commentary:


Both Brent and WTI market pricing have appreciated significantly over the past two weeks with Brent having escalated $3.35 per bbl (+3%) and WTI $3.72 per bbl (+3.9%).  Signs of an improving US economy, reduced inventories and geo-political tensions appear to be the primary drivers.

Refined product wholesale pricing has also increased over the period as colder weather, increased traffic-related demand and tax-planned inventory reductions combine to impact market pricing strategy.

Economic Data:


Platts Inventory Update:

The US Energy Department ("DOE") weekly petroleum inventory assessment, issued December 27, 2013, reported a decrease in US crude stocks of 4,700,000 barrels.

US gasoline inventories decreased by 600,000 barrels over the previous reporting period. Implied gasoline demand increased in this reporting period by 160,000 b/d.

US distillate inventories decreased by 2,000,000 barrels.

Refinery utilization increased to 92.7% of production capacity.

DOE Report:

 

 

 

Weekly
(bbl)

Year over Year
% Change
 

Crude

 -4,700,000 -0.9%
 

Gasoline

 -600,000 1.4%
 

Distillates

 -2,000,000 -4.4%
Source: DOE December 27, 2013

 

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate