MARKET ANALYSIS
AS PREPARED BY COMMISSION STAFF
December 31, 2014

 

The following analysis has been used by the Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the background factors influencing current market prices.

 

Crude Track:
  Recent Crude (US$/bbl)
    WTI Brent
 

Dec 16

 $ 55.93

$ 59.86
 

Dec 17

 $ 56.47

$ 61.18
 

Dec 18

 $ 54.11

$ 59.27
 

Dec 19

 $ 56.52

$ 61.38
 

Dec 22

 $ 55.26

$ 60.11
 

Dec 23

 $ 57.12

$ 61.69
 

Dec 24

 $ 55.84

$ 60.24
 

Dec 29

 $ 53.61

$ 57.88
  Dec 30 $ 54.12 $ 57.90
 Average Brent Crude for December: $ 63.75.
 
West Texas Intermediate
  Average Average Average
  2014 2013 2012
January  $ 94.73  $ 94.70  $100.51
February  $100.57  $ 95.50  $102.26
March  $100.46  $ 92.73  $106.36
April  $102.15  $ 89.59  $103.18
May  $101.79  $ 94.93  $ 95.47
June  $105.14  $ 95.76  $ 82.28
July $102.39  $104.68  $ 87.93
August $ 96.08  $106.49  $ 94.05
September $ 93.03  $106.24  $ 94.74
October $ 84.52  $100.74  $ 89.72
November $ 77.55  $ 94.00  $ 85.87
December $ 59.82  $ 97.87  $ 88.06
         
  US $
Per Barrel		 CDN  Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre		 CDN Cents
Per Litre
  CRUDE RUL F/O DIESEL
Dec 30/14 $ 54.12 99.9 91.3 122.9
Dec 30/13 $ 99.29 129.5 113.3 149.5
YOY Diff. -45.17 -29.6 -22.0 -26.6
% Change -45.5% -22.9% -19.4% -17.8%

Commentary:


Despite occasional one-off upward exertions of pressure, (i.e. report of strong U.S. GDP growth and geopolitical related supply disruptions in Libya) oil prices continue to languish in the mid $50.00 per barrel range.  Indeed, amid speculation that a current global supply glut will continue through the first half of 2015, crude futures are currently trading at their lowest level in more than five years.  With OPEC's recent decision not to cut production quotas, coupled with the continued growth of domestic U.S. production, global supplies continue to outpace demand.

In related fashion refined product market prices continue to fall as well.  Both gasoline and diesel futures and pump prices are currently trading at their lowest level since May of 2009.

Note:

Legend:
DOE Department of Energy
RUL Regular Unleaded Gasoline
F/O Furnace Oil
WTI West Texas Intermediate